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▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Dollar (USD), Wall Street / AI generated image
Bitcoin (BTC) is once again showing a daily Ichimoku Cloud breakout signal, bringing past bullish patterns back into the spotlight. Since 2015, after the same signal occurred, Bitcoin was found to have risen by an average of 186.01% a year later, but there were also instances where the same signal failed in the late stages of a bear market or in vulnerable market structures.
NewsBTC reported on May 11 (local time) that analyst Josh Olszewicz shared a chart on X (formerly Twitter) tracking Bitcoin's returns after daily Ichimoku Cloud breakouts since 2015. The chart also included the latest breakout signal that occurred on May 6, 2026.
According to the data, after past daily cloud breakouts, Bitcoin rose 22 out of 26 times a week later, with an average return of 6.21% and a median of 5.08%. A month later, it rose 20 out of 26 times, with an average return of 14.05% and a median of 12.00%.
The return bias was stronger in the long-term periods. Three months after the cloud breakout, Bitcoin rose 18 out of 26 times, with an average return of 39.48% and a median of 26.37%. Six months later, it rose 22 out of 26 times, with an average return of 74.36% and a median of 46.04%.
The most notable period is the 1-year return. Based on completed samples, Bitcoin rose 22 out of 25 times a year after the cloud breakout. The average increase was 186.01%, and the median increase was 129.46%. NewsBTC assessed that this signal is less of a short-term prediction tool and more of an asymmetric trend signal that historically had a high probability of sustained upward movement.
The largest 1-year returns occurred during major bull market phases. After breakouts on September 4, 2016, and October 7, 2016, the 1-year returns were 615.08% and 617.09%, respectively. After the signal on April 1, 2017, it rose 525.35%, and after the breakout on April 23, 2020, it rose 581.82%. Another breakout signal in October 2020 led to gains of 237.35% in 3 months, 430.84% in 6 months, and 393.65% in 1 year.
However, not all signals were successful. After the breakout on August 13, 2021, Bitcoin fell by 48.89% a year later, and after the signal on October 1, 2021, it dropped by 59.90% over a year. The breakout on April 22, 2025, recorded positive returns in the 1-week, 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month periods, but fell by 16.31% a year later.
The most recently completed signal, the breakout on October 1, 2025, was also presented as a cautionary example. Bitcoin rose 3.98% in the week following that signal, but then fell 7.60% a month later, 25.46% three months later, and 43.74% six months later. The 1-year return is not yet reflected in the chart.
NewsBTC explained that while this cloud breakout historically showed a strong upward bias, failed signals were concentrated in periods where the market structure deteriorated. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $80,735. Whether the latest signal will lead to sustained gains like past bull market examples, or end in a reversal like recent failed cases, remains a variable to be determined by future market structure.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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