Solana, Will it Break the $100 Barrier This Time? A Reversal Signal Emerged After 205 Days

▲ Solana (SOL) ©

Solana has regained its 100-day moving average after 205 days, putting it on the verge of breaking the $100 mark. The influx of institutional funds, whale buying, the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, and expectations for the Clarity Act have combined, making the breakthrough of the short-term resistance a key market variable.

According to the investment media TradingNews on May 11 (local time), Solana (SOL) traded at $96.03 during the day, rising 2.83% in one day. Over the past week, it jumped approximately 15% from around $83 to $98, with an intraday price range of $93.82 to $98.02. In particular, recovering the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $93.87 after 205 days highlighted a technical signal that the mid-term downtrend has ended.

The media identified the $100-$101 supply zone as Solana's most critical short-term gateway. This zone has been a key resistance level, preventing all breakthrough attempts over the past 72 hours. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $87.51 has already been broken upwards, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a buy signal. However, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a strong trend at 67.27, some indicators also show overheating concerns, leaving the possibility of short-term profit-taking.

Institutional funds also supported the uptrend. Solana spot ETFs saw $39.23 million flow in over the past week, recording the largest weekly inflow since mid-January. According to SoSoValue data, the inflow has continued for several weeks, and Solana ETF products are reportedly holding nearly 2% of the current circulating supply of Solana. The media analyzed that new ETF demand leads to actual spot purchases, creating a structural effect that reduces the circulating supply on exchanges.

Whale movements also attracted market attention. A large investor opened a leveraged long position worth 78,000 SOL, approximately $7.5 million, and Solana futures open interest increased from $4.83 billion on May 5 to $6.35 billion. Additionally, a wallet that had been dormant for seven months became active again, accumulating 67,648 SOL, worth approximately $6.23 million, in a short period. The funding rate also turned positive to 0.0067%, indicating a structure where long positions pay costs to short positions.

The future outlook depends on whether it breaks through the $100-$101 mark. The media suggests that if a closing price with accompanying trading volume is confirmed above $101, there is potential for a phased increase to $105, $108.12-$110.62, $117.71, $120, and $131.35. Conversely, if it falls below $92, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $87.52 and the Fibonacci retracement zone at $86.67 are mentioned as the next support levels. This week's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), the U.S. crypto market structure bill, and the review of the Clarity Act are considered short-term catalysts that will determine Solana's breakthrough of $100.

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