Has the Bitcoin Bear Market Really Ended? Why Breaking $82,580 Is Crucial

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Godasol

Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded by about 40% from its low in February, reaching a watershed moment for a bull market transition. The breakthrough of a specific key resistance level is emerging as a decisive factor that will put an end to the long bear market.

According to FXStreet, an investment media outlet, on May 11 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) fell 2.25% during Monday's trading session, recording around $80,500, giving back some of the previous day's gains. This was a result of yet another failure to break through the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $82,580. Experts note that this indicator has acted as a strong resistance level since November 2025, and in the past, whenever it failed to break through this level, a sharp decline of about 30% on average occurred.

Market analyst Brett diagnosed that if Bitcoin definitively breaks above the 200-day EMA currently formed around $82,580, it could virtually signify the end of the bear market. However, considering the recent correction pattern, the possibility of further short-term declines is gaining more weight. If a retreat of about 30%, similar to past instances, recurs, BTC's price could fall to around $56,600 from its current level.

Fortunately, downside support levels are relatively robust. According to the 'Bitcoin Lifetime Support Model' presented by analyst PlanC, the upper bound of the long-term macro support range is $57,110, and the lower bound is $46,760. Although a bear flag pattern is currently forming on the chart, indicating a lingering risk of falling below $60,000, the mid-$50,000 range has historically served as a strong bottom.

From a medium-to-long-term perspective, positive signals are also being detected. Bitcoin's recent rebound of over 38% from around the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $61,000 is similar to historical bottom patterns seen during the crashes of 2018 and March 2020. If, like in past cases, a recovery towards the 50-week SMA follows support at the 200-week SMA, the next upward target is expected to be around $94,700, approximately 17% higher than the current level.

Strong fundamentals also support the bullish argument. Recent aggressive accumulation by whales has reportedly absorbed about 500% of the newly issued Bitcoin supply from the market. While short-term pain due to technical resistance seems inevitable, the inflow of large capital and the possibility of historical cycle repetition suggest that the end of the bear market is not far off.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*