Bitcoin: Is Another Black Swan Shock Coming? Market Fear Spreads Due to Hantavirus Variable

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Black Swan, Hantavirus/AI-generated image

A warning has emerged that Bitcoin (BTC) could face another Black Swan shock amidst concerns over the spread of Hantavirus. With the precedent of Bitcoin plummeting 50% in a few days during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic being revisited, the possibility that the market might excessively reflect fear rather than actual risk has also been raised.

CryptoPotato reported on the 9th that Hantavirus has been at the center of news in recent weeks, leading some analysts to discuss the possibility of a Bitcoin crash similar to that during COVID-19. The original text pointed out that new health risks, following war, inflation, and global uncertainty, are now becoming market variables.

The comparison point presented is the Bitcoin crash of March 2020. At that time, Bitcoin showed signs of breaking out of a long-term bear market, and with the halving year, there were high expectations for future price increases. However, as COVID-19 was classified as a global risk, Bitcoin fell from over $8,000 to a multi-year low of $3,750 in two days.

Cryptocurrency analyst Crypto Rover argued that a similar shock could recur if Hantavirus spreads. He stated that while the COVID-19 fatality rate was approximately 1%, the Hantavirus fatality rate is as high as 40%, which could cause greater anxiety in the market and society as a whole. However, he also conveyed that the World Health Organization does not view it as the next pandemic.

The original text also clearly highlighted the differences between Hantavirus and COVID-19. Andes virus is known to have originated in South America and caused casualties and deaths on a Dutch cruise ship. This virus belongs to the Hantavirus family, which is carried by rodents, and most forms are not transmissible between humans. However, the Andes virus was introduced as the only Hantavirus capable of human-to-human transmission.

Experts explained that its transmissibility differs from COVID-19. Steven Bradfute, an immunologist and Hantavirus researcher at the University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, stated that the Andes virus does not spread massively by lingering in the air like measles or COVID-19, but rather spreads only through close contact. He explained that it can be transmitted in intimate situations such as sleeping in the same bed, sexual contact, or sharing food, but it does not spread to large groups.

Dr. Emily Abdoler also stated that this virus should not be a major concern for most people. She said she is giving interviews to reassure people, emphasizing that this issue is not something that should be at the top of their list of worries.

However, CryptoPotato analyzed that even if the actual health risk is not as significant as COVID-19, the market might excessively reflect potential outcomes. Similar reassuring statements were made at the early stages of COVID-19, but it eventually escalated into a global pandemic. Therefore, if investors perceive the Hantavirus issue as a Black Swan variable, Bitcoin could face another sharp decline.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*