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▲ Dogecoin (DOGE)
Dogecoin (DOGE) has risen by approximately 14% over the past month, but an analysis suggests it's too early to consider this a full-fledged resumption of a bull market. While meme coin investment sentiment has somewhat revived in the market, key resistance levels and Bitcoin (BTC) trends are cited as crucial variables that will determine Dogecoin's next direction.
According to Benzinga, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on May 8, crypto analyst Kevin diagnosed Dogecoin's recent rebound as being closer to a counter-trend rally occurring within an uncertain market structure, rather than an entry into a long-term bull market. He believes Dogecoin must break through key resistance zones to confirm a complete upward trend reversal.
The first resistance zone identified by Kevin is between $0.117 and $0.125. This zone includes key Fibonacci price levels, as well as the 200-day exponential moving average and the 200-day simple moving average on a daily basis. A stronger resistance zone lies between $0.136 and $0.159. If Dogecoin fails to break through this zone, the recent rise is highly likely to be interpreted as a recovery bounce.
Technical indicators showed mixed signals in the short term. Kevin assessed that momentum and money flow indicators had significantly improved. However, he warned that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) had entered the overbought zone, increasing the risk of a short-term correction. He revealed that he bought Dogecoin around $0.09, is currently up about 26%, and plans to accumulate more if the price shows a retracement.
It was also diagnosed that Dogecoin's long-term trend remains tied to Bitcoin. Kevin explained that Dogecoin and most altcoins generally follow Bitcoin's movements. He stated that before Dogecoin itself can turn bullish, one must check Bitcoin's price structure, USDT market dominance, and the relative strength of the Dogecoin/Bitcoin trading pair.
He explained that Dogecoin's potential for a long-term breakout increases only if Bitcoin recovers the $95,000 to $100,000 range, reconfirms that range as support, and continues its upward trend. Until these conditions are met, Kevin views the current Dogecoin movement not as a confirmation signal of a sustainable bull cycle, but as a recovery bounce.
Speculative interest in the meme coin market appears to be reviving. Benzinga reported that Dogecoin continues to attract attention amidst the recovery of meme coin momentum. Dogecoin spot ETFs recorded inflows of approximately $627,300 on May 5th and May 6th, and Santiment data showed that Dogecoin whale activity reached its highest level in six months.
Dogecoin's 14% rise over one month is evaluated as a sign of renewed interest in the meme coin market. However, if it fails to surpass the resistance levels ranging from $0.117 to $0.125 and $0.136 to $0.159, and Bitcoin does not recover the $95,000 to $100,000 range, there remains a possibility that this rally will be limited to a short-term bounce.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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