"60% of Holders Concentrated at $1.45"...XRP Blocked from Breaking $1.50 by a Brutal Sell Wall

▲ XRP/AI Generated Image

XRP is failing to show significant momentum despite Bitcoin's (BTC) rebound. Even if Bitcoin surpasses the $85,000 resistance level, an analysis suggests that for XRP to stably break through $1.50, it must first overcome the massive sell wall concentrated around $1.45.

According to 24/7 Wall St. on May 7, XRP has been trapped between $1.30 and $1.45 since last February. Notably, $1.45 has acted as a key resistance level, thwarting multiple breakout attempts. Bitcoin faced resistance near its 200-day moving average of $82,228, and it was analyzed that it must first cross this moving average before testing the $85,000 resistance level.

XRP's ability to follow Bitcoin's movements has also been limited. On May 4, Bitcoin broke $80,000 for the first time since January, rising approximately 4% in a single day, but XRP only managed to climb about 2%, from $1.38 to $1.40, during the same period. Over the recent 30-day trend, Bitcoin rose by approximately 19%, while XRP increased by about 7%. 24/7 Wall St. analyzed that Bitcoin's rise was approximately three times that of XRP's.

Applying this trend, if Bitcoin rises from around $81,000 to $85,000, XRP's potential upside is calculated to be around 2-3%. In this scenario, XRP could rise to around $1.45-$1.46, but it would fall short of settling above $1.50. This means that Bitcoin's rebound alone is unlikely to break through XRP's upper resistance.

The biggest hurdle is the $1.45 sell wall. According to Glassnode data, approximately 60% of XRP holders purchased at an average price of $1.44 to $1.45. This explains why every time XRP approached $1.44, its upward momentum was curbed as wallets that had been in a loss-making position for several months started selling near their break-even point.

The same pattern was repeated even with past positive news. On March 17, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classified XRP as a digital commodity, XRP surged to $1.60. However, by the end of the week, it fell back below $1.45. Even when Rakuten added XRP payment support for its 44 million users in Japan on April 17, XRP surpassed $1.50 but dropped below $1.45 a few days later.

24/7 Wall St. projected that if Bitcoin breaks $85,000 and the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill is reviewed before May 21, XRP could rise above $1.50, reaching $1.65 to $1.70. Conversely, if Bitcoin surpasses $85,000 but the bill's review is delayed, XRP is likely to briefly touch $1.50 before retreating to the $1.40-$1.45 range.

If Bitcoin fails to break $85,000, XRP could retest the $1.35 support level. 24/7 Wall St. pointed out that for XRP to break $1.50, it would require not only a Bitcoin rebound but also additional buying pressure to absorb the supply accumulated above $1.45. XRP's short-term direction is expected to depend on whether Bitcoin breaks $85,000 and the schedule for the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*