Are Whales Who Reached Break-Even Point Selling? What's Behind Ethereum's $2,300 Collapse?

▲ Ethereum (ETH), Cryptocurrency decline/AI generated image ©

Ethereum is continuing its precarious trend, giving up the $2,300 level, pushed by selling pressure from investors who reached their break-even point and a fierce offensive from short-sellers betting on a decline.

According to investment specialized media FXStreet on May 8 (local time), Ethereum (ETH) fell by 2% on Thursday alone, with selling pressure detected in key on-chain indicators. Particularly, the $2,300 to $2,500 range has acted as a distribution zone where strong selling pressure has been concentrated over the past month, forming a thick resistance wall every time there's an attempt to rise.

This area is where the average purchase price (realized price) of various investment entities, from whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 Ethereum to individual investors, is concentrated. As the overall market structure maintains a cautious stance, a clear distribution phenomenon is observed where a large number of investors who have reached their break-even point are liquidating their holdings. In fact, individual investors have sold approximately 1,500,000 units over the past two weeks, and large whale wallets are also depositing tens of thousands of units into exchanges, intensifying downward pressure.

Downward pressure targeting Ethereum is also strong in the derivatives market. Despite the price decline, open interest surged to 14.85 million, the highest since July last year, indicating a rapid accumulation of short positions betting on a decline. Along with this, the 30-day moving average net taker volume index, which represents the proportion of market orders, is also on the verge of turning negative, suggesting that short traders are gradually taking control in the futures market.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum continues its unstable tightrope walk. Approximately $96.3 million worth of forced liquidations occurred in the past 24 hours, of which $89.1 million were long positions anticipating a rise. The current price is finding support above the 50-day exponential moving average of $2,262 but is blocked by the resistance of the 100-day exponential moving average of $2,349. Auxiliary indicators such as the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic also show that buying pressure is gradually weakening.

In the future, if Ethereum fails to hold the $2,262 support level, there is a possibility of it dropping to $2,211, $2,107, and even $1,741. For a rebound, it must first reclaim the 100-day exponential moving average of $2,349, and only by firmly breaking through the resistance of $2,388 can it recover upward momentum towards $2,746.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*