XRP Hesitates at $1.5 Barrier...Is it Due to ETF 'Lock-up'?

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Changes are emerging in the supply structure of XRP. As the net assets of US XRP spot ETFs reached $1.11 billion, 1.26% of the total market capitalization has moved into ETFs. The market is focusing on the $1.5 resistance level that XRP has failed to overcome for several months, but analysis suggests that changes in ownership structure are occurring before price movements.

According to U.Today on May 7th local time, based on SoSoValue data, the net assets of US XRP spot ETFs recorded $1.11 billion. Although cumulative ETF inflows reached $1.32 billion, XRP moved within the $1.3 to $1.5 range for 75 days. U.Today reported that ETF fund inflows did not lead to an immediate price increase.

Statistics from November and December 2025 also show the same trend. At that time, large amounts of capital flowed in, accounting for most of the current cumulative inflow of $1.32 billion, but XRP actually fell by 27%. This confirms that a short-term breakthrough cannot easily be explained by ETF fund inflows alone.

However, the fact that 1.26% of the supply has left the free circulation market is considered a basis for amplifying price movements when buying pressure increases. U.Today analyzed that if this volume remains locked within ETFs, the supply released to exchanges will decrease, allowing XRP to move more smoothly in a future upward trend. XRP also showed a rally of the same magnitude, 27%, in January 2026.

The total ETF-related fund inflow for April and May was tallied at $110 million. U.Today evaluated this amount as relatively limited, stating that the core of the recent ETF rally is closer to strengthening XRP's support base rather than short-term price increases. The fact that investors who invested over $1 billion at the end of 2025 did not dump their holdings in the first half of 2026 was also presented as an indication of long-term investment tendencies.

U.Today suggested that actual price triggers could come from a re-acceleration of inflows to 2025-end levels or a shift in the net asset indicator to outflows. If net assets turn into a continuous outflow, it could signal that major investors have failed to achieve the expected breakthrough and have begun to realize profits. Currently, 1.26% of XRP's supply is locked within ETFs, similar to supply that has disappeared from the market.

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