Bitcoin $80,000, next is 'here'?..Whales eagerly eye opportunity to fill CME gap

▲ USD, Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered the $80,000 mark and is now testing the $82,000 resistance zone. Although the recovery trend has improved since the March low, it has entered a phase where the next direction will become clear only after definitively breaking through the resistance line that has repeatedly thwarted recent upward attempts.

NewsBTC reported on May 7, citing analysis from XWIN Research Japan, that the approximately $93,000 range is emerging as Bitcoin's next mid-term target. This analysis focused on the unfilled gaps that occurred in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures market.

CME Bitcoin futures are traded only on weekdays, whereas the spot Bitcoin market continues to move on weekends. When spot prices fluctuate over the weekend and the futures market reopens on Monday, a price gap forms between Friday's closing price and Monday's opening price. This gap is the CME gap. XWIN Research Japan analyzed that one gap has already been filled in this cycle, and the next unfilled gap is around $93,000.

The report explained the CME gap not as a mysterious price magnet but as a result of liquidity structure. It states that no futures trading occurs in these areas, leaving thin liquidity zones, and the market tends to revisit these price levels during position adjustments. If open interest increases, the accumulated energy within the market grows, and price volatility can expand during position liquidations, expirations, or profit-taking processes.

However, reaching $93,000 is not a confirmed trend. The report pointed out that if leverage continues to build without strong spot demand, the market could first decline, liquidating long positions that entered late. This correction, it explained, could create a more stable attempt towards the upper gap after clearing out vulnerable leverage.

In terms of technical trends, Bitcoin is also facing a critical test in the $82,000 range. The price has shifted from a structure of lower lows and lower highs after the February sell-off to forming higher lows. The recovery of short-term moving averages is positive, but the 200-day moving average is still declining above the mid-$80,000 range, indicating that the overall trend has not escaped the neutral to bearish range.

Trading volume also did not show strong expansion. Compared to the selling phase, participation intensity was relatively low, leading to the interpretation that this recovery relies more heavily on easing selling pressure than on strong new demand. If Bitcoin breaks and holds above $82,000, there is room to move into the $85,000 to $88,000 range. Conversely, if it fails to break $82,000, it could be pushed back to the $74,000 to $76,000 support zone.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*