The fate of the crypto market will be decided in 14 days... US crypto bill deadline is May 21st

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The US cryptocurrency market structure bill has ended a nine-month deadlock and is on the verge of legislation. At the same time, the virtual asset market has reached a critical turning point that will simultaneously shake the regulatory landscape and capital flows over the next 14 days.

Louis Raskin, host of the crypto-focused YouTube channel Coin Bureau, stated in a video released on May 6 (local time) that the US cryptocurrency market structure bill has entered full legislative procedures following an agreement on key issues by the Senate Banking Committee. When senators agreed on major issues of the bill on May 1, Bitcoin (BTC) broke past $80,000 for the first time since February. Raskin warned that if the bill is not processed before the Memorial Day recess on May 21, the establishment of a US virtual asset regulatory framework could be delayed until 2030 due to the election schedule.

The core of this agreement is Section 404, which deals with stablecoin yields. Although the provision faced difficulties due to opposition from the banking sector, a compromise was reached that allows staking rewards, liquidity provision income, and loyalty program benefits. This increases the likelihood that Coinbase's USDC revenue model and Athena's (ENA) synthetic dollar revenue structure will receive legal protection. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong welcomed the agreement on the day of its announcement, saying, "Let's vote," and the market immediately reacted to the possibility of key revenue models in the virtual asset industry entering the institutional framework.

Opposition from traditional financial institutions is intensifying. Five financial groups, including the American Bankers Association (ABA), issued a joint statement on May 4, opposing the bill, stating that up to $1.3 trillion in deposits could flow out into stablecoins by 2028. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has publicly criticized Bitcoin as a fraud, but internally, the company has been pursuing the development of tokenized products. Raskin analyzed that the banking sector's influx of $56 million in lobbying funds demonstrates the traditional financial sector's sense of crisis regarding the new virtual asset financial system.

The non-custodial developer protection clause in Section 604 is also attracting market attention. This provision ensures that developers who write smart contract code are not classified as money transmitters or financial intermediaries, thereby providing a basis for developers to build non-custodial infrastructure without the risk of punishment. Currently, the proportion of US-based developers is only 19%, with a significant number of talents having relocated to Dubai and Singapore. Raskin evaluated this provision as a key variable in determining where the center of the DeFi ecosystem will be.

The market variable is whether the Senate Banking Committee will vote before May 21. Analysis suggests that if the bill passes, Circle's market capitalization could increase by more than 65% from its current level, but if processing is delayed, the pre-reflected expectations could quickly fade, leading to price corrections. Bitcoin recorded an inflow of $630 million in spot ETF funds on May 1 alone, creating a downside support base. Over the next 14 days, the actions of Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and changes in Polymarket's approval probability have emerged as key indicators of virtual asset market volatility.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*