New Whales Accumulate 150,000 BTC... Bitcoin to Reach '$90,000' if it Breaks $82,000 Barrier

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Crypto Whale/AI Generated Image

While Bitcoin (BTC) held above $80,000, new whales bought close to 150,000 BTC. However, long-term whales remained largely inactive, leading to divergent market interpretations regarding the nature of this rebound.

According to crypto-specialized media Bitcoinist on May 6 (local time), Bitcoin is maintaining above $80,000 and testing a breakthrough of a major resistance level. The price has recovered by 17.5% over the past month, and market sentiment has shifted from fear to cautious optimism. However, crypto analyst Carmelo Aleman pointed out that there are signals to confirm before judging the quality of this recovery through whale behavior analysis.

Aleman's analysis tracked large Bitcoin holders with over 1,000 BTC, dividing them into two groups from April 3 to May 2. New whales were classified as a group whose owned Bitcoin age was less than 155 days, sensitive to short-term price changes, and tactically moving recent capital inflows. Existing whales were categorized as a group holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, representing long-term capital less reactive to short-term price changes.

During the same 30-day period, as Bitcoin's price rose by 17.5%, new whales realized a net profit of approximately $865 million. In contrast, existing whales recorded a negative net value of about $87 million. The difference in holdings was also clear. The holdings of new whales increased from 985,639 BTC to 1,135,400 BTC, adding approximately 149,800 BTC, a growth rate of 15.2%. Existing whales' holdings only increased by 1,200 BTC, from 3,323,800 BTC to 3,325,000 BTC, a change rate of 0.04%.

Aleman explained that new whales are increasing their exposure in a manner closer to spot market participants and are acting like tactical investors actively realizing profits. Existing whales remained in long-term holding mode without aggressive accumulation or large-scale distribution. However, Aleman clarified that these indicators only describe behavior and do not directly measure buy/sell pressure on the order book. He also mentioned previous analyses suggesting that the recent Bitcoin surge was more significantly influenced by futures positioning than by ETF inflows or whale accumulation.

In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is moving around $80,800, continuing its recovery since the sharp dip in February. A pattern of higher highs and higher lows has formed since March, and with the recovery of the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, the $72,000-$74,000 range is acting as dynamic support. Conversely, the 200-day moving average continues its downward trend around the $82,000-$84,000 mark, creating a key resistance zone.

Bitcoinist assessed that trading volume does not sufficiently confirm the strength of this recovery. While the rebound trend is orderly, participation is lower than during the sell-off phase, suggesting that this rally might be more about easing selling pressure than aggressive new demand. If Bitcoin confirms above $82,000, it could transition to a higher high structure, opening the way towards $90,000. Failure to break this level could lead to a pullback to the $74,000 support level, where buying pressure was previously observed.

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