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▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) ©Coinreaders
Massive capital from institutional investors has explosively flowed in through spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), allowing the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), to reclaim the $80,000 mark in three months. In contrast, small-scale capital outflows have occurred from major altcoin spot ETFs such as XRP (Ripple), indicating a new shift in dominance in the virtual asset market as institutions thoroughly gravitate towards Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.
According to TradingNews, an investment media outlet, on May 4 (local time), BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) closed at $45.40, up 2.09% from the previous trading day. Bitcoin also surged past the psychological resistance level of $80,000 for the first time since late January, hitting $80,448 intraday. The cumulative capital inflow into the US spot Bitcoin ETF market since its launch in January 2024 amounts to $58.72 billion, which is only $2.47 billion short of the all-time high of $61.19 billion recorded in October 2025.
The fund leading the market is currently demonstrating overwhelming dominance by scooping up over 810,000 units, accounting for approximately 7% of the total global Bitcoin supply. This, combined with MicroStrategy's aggressive move to accumulate $3.9 billion worth of Bitcoin in April alone as part of its corporate treasury strategy, has established a formidable downside support level. The dual buying power of spot ETFs and corporations is absorbing more Bitcoin than is being mined, exacerbating a structural supply shortage.
However, behind the spectacular rally, strong warnings about a derivatives-driven bubble are also sounding. According to crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant, the recent surge has been driven more by excessive leverage in the futures market, where open interest has skyrocketed, rather than by pure spot demand. Furthermore, the exclusive position of the leading fund is facing new challenges as Morgan Stanley's new low-fee Bitcoin spot ETF creates a stir and capital inflows to competitors like Fidelity become more diversified.
The market identifies macroeconomic stability and regulatory clarity as key catalysts for Bitcoin to surge towards the $100,000 mark in the future. In particular, the congressional passage of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act, has emerged as a critical variable that will determine the direction of pending institutional funds. Currently, Polymarket, a leading decentralized prediction market, estimates a 56% probability of Bitcoin reaching $85,000 by the end of May, leaning towards a gradual upward stair-step ascent rather than a vertical surge.
Experts analyze that while short-term negative factors such as temporary liquidation risks in the futures market and geopolitical crises originating from the Middle East are lurking, the broader trend has already entered a firm bull market. As a structural transition period has arrived where Bitcoin is being incorporated as an essential asset into institutional portfolios, whether it can establish itself above $80,000 is expected to be the most crucial technical and psychological watershed determining an explosive rally in the cryptocurrency market in the second half of this year.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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