To Survive, 1.1 Billion XRP Sell Wall Must Be Broken… XRP's Two Weeks of Destiny

▲ XRP (XRP)/AI generated image ©

XRP (XRP, Ripple) has re-crossed $1.40, making the breakthrough of the $1.50 resistance line, which has been blocked all year, the biggest turning point in the short-term market.

According to TradingNews, an investment media outlet, on May 4 (local time), XRP traded at $1.4063, moving between $1.4061 and $1.4122 during the day. The 24-hour increase rate was aggregated from 0.50% to 2.02% depending on the data standard, and the market capitalization exceeded $87.1 billion, with 24-hour trading volume surpassing $1.5 billion. This is interpreted as a sign of revived buying interest, unlike the low-volume sideways trend that continued since mid-April.

Technically, market attention is focused on the Cup-and-Handle pattern. XRP rebounded from a bottom around $1.25-$1.30 in mid-March, reaching close to $1.50 on April 17, and then formed the handle portion in the $1.37-$1.43 range. If the $1.50 neckline is breached, the pattern's target price is suggested to be $1.65-$1.70, representing an upside potential of approximately 16% to 18% from the breakout point.

However, in the $1.44-$1.45 range, approximately 1.16 billion XRP are held, implying selling pressure is expected before a full breakout. The original text pointed out that holders in this range are likely to sell at their break-even point. Furthermore, the 200-day simple moving average is at $1.7930, indicating long-term downward pressure still remains, and the Average Directional Index is 9.55, suggesting a weak discernible trend. The Relative Strength Index also remained in the neutral zone, between 38.30 and 48.7.

Supply and demand, along with institutional variables, are supporting the upside. In April, net inflows into XRP spot ETFs reached $81.59 million, the highest this year, with cumulative net inflows since launch totaling approximately $1.29 billion. Additionally, after Ripple's monthly escrow release of 1 billion XRP, 700 million XRP were re-escrowed, limiting the net supply increase to approximately 300 million XRP. The original text viewed XRP's rise above $1.40 immediately after the supply shock as a sign that buying demand absorbed the supply burden.

A variable that will determine the short-term direction is the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act, which is expected to be reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee in the week of May 11. The original text explained that this schedule coincides with the breakout timeline of the Cup-and-Handle pattern. If the bill review proceeds smoothly, a breakthrough of $1.50 and target prices of $1.65-$1.70 could materialize, but if it is delayed or key provisions are weakened, the pattern could be invalidated, increasing the possibility of retesting the $1.32-$1.35 support level, and even $1.20.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*