Bitcoin breaks $80,000 in 3 months, is it a derivatives-driven bubble or a real rally?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image ©

Breaking a long three-month silence, the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) swiftly reclaimed the $80,000 mark, drawing significant market attention. However, analyses suggesting it's an unstable rally dependent on derivatives funding are emerging, pushing caution against a short-term sharp decline to its peak.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Finbold on May 4 (local time), Bitcoin's price surged to an intraday high of $80,617, breaking through the firm selling wall at $79,245 formed in April, thus setting a new high since January 31, 2026. Following a slight correction of about 1.2%, it is currently trading around $79,760, up 1.67% from 24 hours ago, with its market capitalization expanding by approximately $24 billion in a single day to $1.6 trillion.

Bitcoin's recent sharp rally has been primarily catalyzed by a massive inflow of funds into the derivatives market rather than actual market demand. According to CoinGlass data, Open Interest, which represents the total value of active contracts held by market participants on exchanges, has surged by over $10 billion in the past 30 days, currently standing at $58.63 billion.

Regarding future price movements, Finbold's AI agent predicted that Bitcoin would enter a consolidation phase for the next week rather than a further sharp surge towards its previous peak. A comprehensive analysis of multiple large language models, including Claude Opus and Gemini 3 Flash, projected that Bitcoin's price would show limited sideways movement within a box range around $79,850 by May 11.

Notably, the empty demand in the spot market is identified as the most critical weakness threatening the sustainability of the rally. According to CryptoQuant analysis, the amount of Bitcoin on virtual asset exchanges actually increased from 2.66 million to 2.68 million over the past seven days.

This implies that spot investors are selling off their holdings whenever prices rebound, leading to net selling. Consequently, a strong warning is echoing through the market: the current "sandcastle rally" created by leveraged traders, facing a fundamental lack of demand, could soon end in a downward reversal.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*