XRP, Can it reach $2 in May? Market expectations are 'sober'

▲ XRP/AI-generated image ©

Despite a short-term rebound, the prevailing outlook suggests a low probability of XRP (Ripple) breaking above $2 by the end of this month.

According to crypto news outlet Finbold on May 4 (local time), traders on the blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket largely anticipate XRP to trade below $2 by the end of May. The highest probability was for $1.60 at 32%, followed by the $1.20 scenario at 22%.

Expectations for an upward scenario were relatively low. The probability of reaching $1.80 was 8%, $2 was 4%, $2.40 was 2%, and $2.60, $2.80, and $3 each remained at approximately 1%. This indicates that the market anticipates a limited upward trend rather than a significant short-term rebound.

Conversely, analysis suggests that a sharp decline is also unlikely. The probability of falling to $1 was 4%, while $0.80 and $0.60 were 2% and 1% respectively. The possibility of a sharp drop to $0.20 was less than 1%. Overall, the structure leans towards 'maintaining a range-bound market'.

Recent market expectations have also been downgraded. The probability of reaching a $1.80 target decreased by 42%, and $1.60 and $1.20 also dropped by 20% and 28% respectively, confirming a trend where traders have conservatively revised their short-term price forecasts.

Currently, XRP is trading at approximately $1.41, showing about a 2% increase over 24 hours but a 0.2% decrease on a weekly basis. The price slightly exceeds the 50-day moving average of $1.39 but remains below the 200-day moving average of $1.80, indicating that the mid-to-long-term upward trend is still limited. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 49.44, in a neutral zone, meaning a clear direction has not yet been established.

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