It has risen, but it's uneasy… Bitcoin's rise 'warning light'

▲ Gold, Bitcoin (BTC), ETF/ChatGPT generated image ©

Bitcoin surpassed $80,000 in a segment where geopolitical risks and institutional funds collide, but caution regarding the sustainability of the rise is also growing simultaneously.

According to FXEmpire, an investment media outlet, on May 4 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $80,247.24 during intraday trading, recording a 2.65% increase over 24 hours, outperforming the market's average return. This surge is analyzed as a result of a combination of safe-haven demand due to heightened tensions between the US and Iran and the structure of the derivatives market.

In particular, as the possibility of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz emerged, investors moved funds into Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedging tool. Additionally, approximately $18 million worth of short positions were liquidated over 24 hours, while long liquidations amounted to only $1.19 million, leading to a short squeeze that further accelerated the upward trend.

However, technical trends support a cautious outlook. Bitcoin rose from approximately $62,000 in April to the $79,000-$80,000 range, but it appears that buying pressure is weakening, forming progressively lower highs near the $80,353 resistance. Futures open interest shows no significant change at around $19 billion, and the 3-month annualized basis remains at 1.5%, indicating limited institutional conviction.

Liquidity indicators are also sending warning signals. On Binance, outflows of funds ranging from $1.54 billion to $1.78 billion have continued since April, weakening buying momentum. Given the precedent of a 15% plunge after a large inflow in January 2026, the market is wary of a similar pattern.

Nevertheless, institutional fund inflows themselves are continuing. Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, recorded inflows of approximately $194 million during April, and the overall spot Bitcoin ETF market also saw net inflows of $2.44 billion during the same period. However, it is assessed that a shift to spot-centric structural demand will be difficult until regulatory clarity, such as the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, is secured.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*