XRP, speculative forces have all left, but the price remains the same... Is the $1.4 box range the calm before the storm?

▲ XRP/ChatGPT generated image

XRP is staying within a quiet box range between $1.38 and $1.40. However, new derivatives data suggests an unstable structure preparing for explosive volatility beneath the surface.

According to NewsBTC, CryptoQuant analyst Pelinay analyzed that XRP's leverage structure is consolidating at low levels, while its price remains relatively high compared to the leverage. This divergence between price and leverage has historically been resolved through strong explosive movements. The estimated leverage ratio for XRP on Binance is currently around 0.1. This is a very low figure compared to the periods when leverage was much higher, such as in late 2024 or mid-2025, during all-time high renewals.

Interestingly, despite the sharp drop in the leverage ratio, the XRP price has held up and not collapsed with it. In October 2024, a leverage ratio of 0.1 corresponded to an XRP price of $0.50, but it is currently holding near $1.40. This implies that the current price is supported by real demand rather than aggressive leveraged positions. It is interpreted that a significant portion of the speculative forces that were excessively present in the market have been cleared out. This divergence is usually resolved either by the price falling to match the low leverage environment or by leverage rising again, causing a strong price reaction.

There are also past cases that support an upward scenario. When the leverage ratio rose from below 0.3 to almost 0.6 within four weeks between late June and mid-July 2025, the XRP price surged from $1.96 to $3.65. Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto also presented a similar conclusion through monthly candle charts. Egrag Crypto diagnosed that XRP is being compressed between long-term upward macro trend lines and is currently located at the bottom of a wedge structure. The analyst set the area around $0.90 as a potential trap zone while suggesting an optimistic path of returning above $1.80.

XRP's current market structure is being assessed as a phase of condensing energy for an explosive move. The analysis that a foundation has been laid for a strong rebound even without overheating in the derivatives market is gaining traction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*