Bitcoin sets a new record and signals entry into a bull market..."Sell in May and go away"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Market

As manufacturing expansion and on-chain indicators simultaneously point to a bottom signal, analysis suggesting that the cryptocurrency market has entered a full-fledged upward trend is gaining traction.

In a video released on May 3 (local time), the cryptocurrency-specialized YouTube channel Altcoin Daily diagnosed that Bitcoin (BTC) confirmed a bottom at $60,000 and is continuing its upward trend towards the $80,000 range. The fact that the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index has exceeded 52 for four consecutive months, indicating an economic expansion phase, was presented as a key basis. Currently, the business cycle is maintaining robust expansion unlike past recessions, and this, coupled with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bottom signal on Bitcoin's monthly chart, is strengthening the upward momentum.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator also showed a rebound signal, recording levels similar to the major bottom ranges in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, evaluated that Bitcoin's momentum and Sharpe ratio are improving compared to gold and commodities. The cup-and-handle pattern formed on the monthly chart suggests a potential rise to the $90,000 to $95,000 range in the short term, increasing the likelihood of a bull market lasting for the next two to three years.

Positive signals are also being observed in the macro environment. A Golden Cross in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) of gold relative to copper, along with business cycle expansion, occurred simultaneously, and historically, this combination has led to strong growth phases lasting an average of 380 days. The upward revision of S&P 500 corporate earnings growth forecasts from 15% to 19% also creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin, which shows a high correlation with technology stocks.

Ethereum (ETH) is securing support around the 11% market share level, showing a trend similar to periods just before past surges. Currently, with approximately 83% of the total supply staked, limiting circulating supply, selling pressure from the foundation has also decreased by more than half compared to before. In the short term, a rise to the $3,700 to $3,800 range is expected, and the tokenization of real-world assets and the expansion of the AI economy are raised as potential long-term growth drivers.

Key future variables include the US cryptocurrency market structure bill (CLARITY), which is cited with an approximate 61% chance of passing, and a policy shift by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Should Kevin Warsh, considered a strong candidate after Chairman Jerome Powell, emerge, there is a possibility of a sudden shift in the liquidity environment along with expectations of interest rate cuts. As the expansion of the tokenization industry and the establishment of AI-based payment infrastructure coincide, the cryptocurrency market is assessed to be concluding its current sideways consolidation phase and preparing to enter a new upward cycle.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*