Sell in May? Breathless Coin Sideways Market Tormenting Wavering Retail Investors

Coin Market Stymied by Macroeconomic Variables… Bitcoin Slightly Up, Alts Slightly Down 'Waiting Game'

▲ US, Iran, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP (XRP), Cryptocurrency Rebound / ChatGPT Generated Image ©

The virtual asset market has entered a deep wait-and-see mode, unable to find a clear direction. While the leading asset, Bitcoin (BTC), continues a tough tug-of-war around the $78,000 mark, major altcoins remain in a slightly bearish range, creating a box-range market across the board.

Bitcoin 'Holding Its Own'… Frozen Altcoins

As of 9:23 AM KST on the 3rd, according to data from the cryptocurrency market aggregation site CoinMarketCap, the global virtual asset market capitalization recorded $2.61 trillion, a 0.66% increase from the previous day. The 'Fear & Greed Index,' which indicates market sentiment, stands at 46, pointing to a perfect 'Neutral' state.

Bitcoin is trading at $78,579.85, up slightly by 0.48% from the previous day and 1.39% from a week ago. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH) recorded $2,312.49, up 0.80% from 24 hours ago, but decreased by 0.14% on a weekly basis. Most major altcoins such as Ripple (XRP) and Solana (SOL) also showed minor daily movements of less than 1%, failing to escape the swamp of negative weekly returns. Exceptionally, Dogecoin (DOGE), the leader of meme coins, showed an independent trend with a 10.30% rise weekly.

Key Reasons for the Box-Range Market: Middle East Risk and the Firmly Closed Door to Interest Rate Cuts

Behind this dull sideways market are complex intertwined global macroeconomic variables.

First, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Iran proposed a new peace agreement (including nuclear talks) via Pakistan, but US President Donald Trump is maintaining a firm stance, emphasizing the effectiveness of blockading Iranian waters and stating he will "continue the war of attrition until a satisfactory proposal arrives." With Iran's rial value plummeting by 15% weekly and inflation soaring sevenfold, deepening economic hardship, the market is closely watching whether Iran's impatience will lead to the resumption of second-round negotiations.

Second, the retreat of interest rate cut expectations. This week's announced US April non-farm payrolls are estimated to significantly slow to around 50,000, compared to the previous month (178,000 cases), and the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 4.3%. While robust employment indicators can alleviate stagflation concerns, the lack of an easing bias confirmed at the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has virtually eliminated the possibility of an early interest rate cut. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, the probability of year-end interest rates remaining unchanged is 77.7%, meaning the key upward catalyst of liquidity supply has disappeared.

Future Outlook: 'Sell in May' vs 'Trump Year-End Rally'

While the stock market adage 'Sell in May and go away' is re-emerging, outlooks are divided. The S&P500 index has shown statistical strength over the past decade, averaging a 1.5% rise in May, and the Trump administration's unique tendency of a 'year-end rally after a bottom confirmation in March-April' overlaps, keeping hopes for a rebound alive.

For the time being, the cryptocurrency market is expected to strongly align with the trends of the New York stock market rather than its own independent positive news. In particular, the earnings announcements of key artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor-related stocks like Palantir and AMD, scheduled for this week, will sway Nasdaq investor sentiment and, furthermore, serve as a crucial weathervane determining Bitcoin's breakthrough of its box-range ceiling.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*