Bitcoin, thought it would rise in May..."Difficult to break $84,000"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) / ChatGPT generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) continues its upward trend. However, an analysis suggests that the options market sees a low probability of breaking $84,000 in May.

According to Cointelegraph, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on May 2 (local time), Bitcoin has continued its recent rebound and entered an upward phase, but expectations in the derivatives market remain relatively conservative. Probability analysis based on options market prices showed that the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $84,000 within May is approximately 25%.

On-chain indicators and profitability metrics suggest entry into the early stages of an uptrend. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (SOPR) has turned upward, indicating that investors have re-entered profitable territory, and the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has also turned into positive territory, signaling a change in market structure.

However, a key resistance zone that could limit the upside is also clearly formed. Approximately 1,100,000 BTC were bought around an average of $84,000, making this zone a price level where strong selling pressure is likely to concentrate. Analysis suggests that the upward trend could slow if investors sell at their break-even point.

Bitcoin's short-term key resistance is identified as the $76,000 to $78,000 range. If this range is decisively broken, upward momentum will strengthen, and an additional upward path to $84,000 could open. Conversely, if resistance is confirmed in this range, the possibility of a short-term correction cannot be ruled out.

The market sees a complex structure where signals indicate Bitcoin has already passed the bottom and entered the early stages of an upward cycle, while selling pressure awaits in key resistance zones. The low probability of an upward move presented by the options market is interpreted as a reflection of this uncertainty.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*