If it holds $77,000, it goes to $80,000... Bitcoin Bullish Scenario

▲ US, Iran, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, cryptocurrency rebound/ChatGPT generated image ©

Bitcoin is once again on an upward trend amidst expectations of easing geopolitical risks, testing the possibility of re-breaking the $80,000 mark.

According to CoinMarketCap, a cryptocurrency market data aggregator, on May 2 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $78,295, up 1.63% over a 24-hour period. During the same period, its correlation with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index was 86.9%, indicating that this rise was a typical macro-driven movement.

The biggest factor behind the rise is the expectation of easing geopolitical tensions. News that Iran conveyed a new peace proposal to the United States via Pakistan on May 1 eased risk aversion in the market. As a result, international oil prices fell, and demand for the dollar decreased, leading to a shift of funds into risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Technical factors also supported the rise. Bitcoin successfully rebounded near the 100-day exponential moving average, and simultaneously, approximately $100 million worth of positions were liquidated in the derivatives market, expanding the upward momentum. Of this, about $83.23 million was accounted for by short position liquidations, with a short squeeze accelerating the price increase.

The short-term trend remains at a critical juncture. If Bitcoin maintains the support level of $77,000-$77,500, the possibility of re-challenging $80,000 opens up, but if $76,000 breaks, a correction to $74,200 is also possible. In particular, whether it breaks above $78,500 has been identified as a key indicator for confirming the short-term trend.

The market is focusing on future variables such as the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act schedule, and the recovery of trading volume. While the current rise in Bitcoin is a combination of macro environment and technical rebound, an increase in trading volume and additional capital inflow are needed for a sustained upward trend.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*