Bitcoin Prepares for Rise Before Middle East War Breaks Out..."If $80,000 is Broken, Game Over"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Despite rising tensions in the Middle East and concerns about surging oil prices, the U.S. stock market continued its strong performance, setting new all-time highs. Simultaneously, Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of a rebound near its long-term support level.

On May 1 (local time), crypto analyst Lark Davis analyzed on his YouTube channel that the Nasdaq index has risen by about 20% from its recent low and is trading 5% higher than its previous peak. The S&P 500 also showed a similar trend, maintaining its upward momentum, but the possibility of reconfirming support levels to resolve short-term overheating was raised. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is rebounding from its 20-day exponential moving average, confirming short-term support.

The biggest variable in the market is geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Tensions are rising again with discussions of a potential U.S. strike inside Iran. Analysts suggest that if an actual conflict occurs, Iran could target Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, which could cause a major shock to global markets. Brent crude prices rose to $116 per barrel, showing signs of a trend reversal to the upside, and this is pointed out as a factor that could stimulate inflationary pressures.

Within the virtual asset market, the view that the current phase presents a long-term opportunity is spreading. Bitcoin is receiving support near its long-term trendline that has continued since 2018, and its relative value compared to traditional finance has also reached a key support zone. This trend is interpreted as having a structure similar to past gold price patterns, raising expectations for long-term upward potential if the support level is maintained. Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to break above $2,400, rebounding from its 50-day exponential moving average, while Solana (SOL) is seeking a rebound after repeated support tests in the $67 range.

In terms of market interest, the decreased public interest in virtual assets is paradoxically interpreted as a positive sign. While virtual asset-related content was the most hidden topic on X (formerly Twitter), past cases show that such periods of stagnation have acted as starting points for strong subsequent rallies. In contrast, AI-related stocks continue to surge, absorbing market funds. AMD and Qualcomm have shown rapid increases in a short period, indicating a concentration of investment capital.

Meanwhile, the movements of virtual asset-related companies such as Strategy and Galaxy Digital are also noteworthy. Strategy has formed upward momentum in technical indicators and is ready to lead the Bitcoin trend, while Galaxy Digital has secured large-scale power for its Texas data center, raising expectations for its transition into a data infrastructure company. If Bitcoin breaks above $80,000, bearish sentiment in the market is likely to weaken significantly.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*