Signals from the $27,000 Era…Bitcoin Bottom Debate Reignites

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©CoinReaders

With the possibility of Bitcoin entering an 'undervalued zone,' investors are focusing on signals that the market is heading towards a bottom.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Bitcoinist on May 1 (local time), the Bitcoin (BTC) market is showing a clear exodus of short-term investors, indicating structural changes. CryptoQuant data shows that the proportion of UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) held by 1-week to 1-month holders has dropped to 3.91%, which is the lowest level since October 2023, when Bitcoin was trading around $27,000.

Market sentiment has also cooled sharply. In a survey conducted by Coinbase Institutional Research and Glassnode from March 16 to April 7, involving 91 global investors, 82% of institutional investors and 70% of non-institutional investors rated the current market as a 'late bear market.' This is a sharp increase from about one-third of that proportion in December last year.

Conversely, the perception of price is the opposite. Approximately 75% of institutions and 61% of individual investors responded that Bitcoin is currently undervalued. The view that it is overvalued was extremely limited. In the Bitcoin dominance outlook, expectations for an increase decreased from 40% to 25%, while 54% expected it to maintain its current level, and 21% anticipated a decline.

On-chain indicators also point in the same direction. Analyst Woo Min-kyu's BCMI index, which evaluates MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), NUPL, SOPR, and investor sentiment, recently rose from 0.26 to 0.37, entering a range historically corresponding to an 'undervalued zone.' However, the 90-day average still shows a downward trend, suggesting that selling pressure has not been completely relieved.

In this regard, experts are evaluating the current market as a 'value accumulation zone.' Historical precedents show that after the 1-week to 1-month UTXO proportion drops to such a level, cycle lows often form within 3 to 6 months. However, a cautious view is also simultaneously raised that it is still too early to confirm the ultimate bottom.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*