War Risk vs. Institutional Accumulation...Bitcoin 'Shakes' on Trump's Words

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image

The virtual asset market has entered a critical turning point as conflicting trends—heightened geopolitical tensions and an influx of institutional funds—converge.

Cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis stated on his YouTube channel on April 30 (local time) that "market uncertainty has expanded after former U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned the possibility of striking Iran, causing oil prices to surge from $119 to $120 per barrel." With news that the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is reviewing military response scenarios targeting key Iranian infrastructure, Bitcoin (BTC), a risk asset, is showing signs of short-term downward pressure.

Bitcoin has currently entered a retest phase of its 20-day moving average, with a dead cross occurring in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. Davis proposed reclaiming the mid-$80,000 support level as a key condition for recovering a bullish trend. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH) has seen its network activity reach an all-time high, surpassing 3.62 million daily transactions, and Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee continues large-scale accumulation, expanding its presence in the market.

The accumulation trend by institutions and corporations also continues. Strategy invested $255 million at the end of April to purchase an additional 3,273 BTC, expanding its total holdings to 818,334 BTC. Galaxy is raising expectations for its transformation into an AI infrastructure company based on its Texas data center, and Solana (SOL) is considered a phased buying opportunity for long-term investors despite its volatility.

The traditional financial market is also at an inflection point. The NASDAQ index has shown strong upward momentum, surging approximately 20% in recent weeks, but technical correction possibilities are being raised. The S&P index has doubled from its 2022 low, creating a situation where overheating debates and expectations coexist. SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, was valued at $2 trillion based on its Mars colonization project, but debates about overvaluation relative to its performance are also being raised simultaneously.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*