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▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) ©Coinreaders
Amidst the deep dark clouds of the macroeconomy and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, a large amount of capital has flowed out of the US Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF market for three consecutive days. As institutional investors' tactical risk reduction became evident, the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is fiercely defending the $76,000 level despite short-term downward pressure.
According to investment media TradingNews on April 30 (local time), a total net outflow of $137.77 million occurred from US Bitcoin spot ETFs on April 29, marking the deepest daily outflow since the current bull market began. Notably, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw an outflow of $54.73 million, Fidelity (FBTC) $36.13 million, and Ark Invest (ARKB) $30.04 million, together accounting for 88% of the total outflow. Nevertheless, the iShares Bitcoin Trust stock price closed at $43.32, up 1.33% during the trading day, indicating that institutional fundamental buying interest in the fund has not completely disappeared.
The main reasons for this capital outflow are cited as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s hawkish rate hold and geopolitical risks. With the benchmark interest rate maintained between 3.50% and 3.75%, conflicting opinions among internal members and Chairman Jerome Powell's decision to remain in office increased policy uncertainty. Furthermore, the prolonged war in Iran pushed Brent crude oil prices up to $114, and growing inflation concerns led to an extreme risk-aversion sentiment among institutions. The announcement by major tech companies like Alphabet and Meta of massive AI capital expenditures exceeding $650 billion also increased volatility across macro tech stocks, acting as a negative factor for the crypto market.
Bitcoin's capital outflow was directly transferred to the altcoin market. Ethereum (ETH) spot ETFs also experienced a relatively harsher outflow than Bitcoin, with $87.73 million flowing out on April 29 alone. In contrast, the XRP (Ripple) spot ETF attracted attention by recording a surprising net inflow of $3.59 million amidst the overall market weakness. This is interpreted as a result of strong individual positive factors, such as Rakuten's $23 billion point linkage and NYSE Arca's submission of a rule change proposal, stimulating institutional buying at lower prices.
Market experts diagnose the current capital outflow as a short-term breather rather than a structural bear market. Since its launch in January, the cumulative amount flowed into all Bitcoin spot products has reached a staggering $58.07 billion, and assets under management stand at $99.27 billion, accounting for 6.55% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. Notably, BlackRock's product alone holds an amount equivalent to 4.03% of the total circulating supply. On-chain data trends, such as virtual asset exchange holdings falling to a seven-year low and companies like MicroStrategy continuing to accumulate reserves, still point to robust medium-to-long-term fundamentals.
The short-term direction of the market depends on whether the $74,000 support line is defended and whether the $80,700 resistance line is broken. If the price clearly surpasses $80,700, which is the realized price for short-term holders, on a daily closing basis, it will gain new upward momentum towards $86,000. Amidst intense macro-economic pressure and fierce maneuvering among institutional investors, a clear catalyst such as easing geopolitical tensions or a change in the Fed's hawkish stance will likely be needed to expect another explosive capital inflow rally.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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