Unfazed by Whale Selling… Ethereum Fundamentals 'At an All-Time High'

▲ Ethereum (ETH)/ChatGPT Generated Image ©

Ethereum experienced a short-term correction due to the shock of large-scale whale selling, but on-chain indicators rose to an all-time high, widening the 'discrepancy between price and fundamentals' to an extreme.

According to investment media outlet TradingNews on April 30 (local time), Ethereum (ETH) traded at approximately $2,265, down 2.16% from the previous day. The sale of 8,500 ETH, worth approximately $19 million, by Trump-linked project World Liberty Financial acted as a direct catalyst for the decline. This volume was processed during the repayment of a loan and a complete withdrawal from the DeFi protocol Aave.

Simultaneously with this sale, a movement of 10,000 ETH, worth approximately $23 million, was detected from a wallet related to the 2014 Initial Coin Offering (ICO), concentrating approximately $42 million in supply pressure on the market in a short period. However, the media interpreted this as a 'supply reallocation' rather than an expansion of new sales, analyzing it as closer to a short-term supply and demand shock than a structural decline.

The fundamental reason for the price decline is the macroeconomic environment. The U.S. Federal Reserve maintaining its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50-3.75% range has led to a sustained high-interest rate environment, thereby limiting preference for risk assets. The fact that staking yields remain at 3-4%, offering limited competitiveness compared to government bonds, was also identified as a factor restricting capital inflow.

Technically, the $2,220 range has emerged as a key defense line. Short-term resistances are formed sequentially at $2,265, $2,280, and $2,300. If $2,300 is recovered, there is a possibility of re-breaking $2,400 after passing $2,345. Conversely, if $2,210 is breached, a downward path to $2,165, $2,150, and ultimately $2,120 could open. While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) maintains a buy signal, the Average Directional Index (ADX) shows weakness, indicating a consolidation phase before a definitive direction is established.

What is noteworthy are the network metrics. Ethereum recorded 3,627,491 transactions in a single day, setting a new all-time high, and active addresses continue to increase. Its structural dominance is further strengthening, occupying 52-54% of stablecoin supply and maintaining approximately 65% of the tokenized asset market. The media evaluated this price stagnation relative to fundamentals as 'the clearest asymmetric opportunity in this cycle.'

In the short term, sideways trading within the $2,210-$2,282 range is expected, but the expanding trading volume in the derivatives market and the open interest structure leaning towards short positions are analyzed as factors increasing the possibility of a future short squeeze. For the mid-to-long-term outlook, levels of $2,536 in 1 month, $3,604 in 3 months, $5,333 in 6 months, and $3,148 in 12 months are presented, and the media suggested a dollar-cost averaging strategy during correction periods as a valid approach.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*