XRP, Why Does It Seem to Rise But Fails to?…Hidden Bearish Signals

▲ 엑스알피(XRP)/챗GPT 생성 이미지 ©

XRP (Ripple) is in a contradictory trend where investor sentiment is overheated, while supply and demand and technical indicators are weakening, leading to increased downward pressure contrary to expectations of a rebound.

According to investment media FXStreet on April 30 (local time), XRP is repeating fluctuations around $1.37 and has failed to break through the $1.40 supply zone, continuing its bearish trend. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain benchmark interest rates at 3.50-3.75%, preserving a hawkish stance, also pressured investor sentiment.

In terms of supply and demand, individual investor participation has distinctly slowed. Futures open interest decreased from $2.52 billion to $2.45 billion, a significantly lower level compared to the $10.94 billion recorded last July. This is interpreted as a signal that the market lacks sufficient confidence to sustain an upward trend.

On the other hand, spot XRP ETF funds recorded net inflows for two consecutive days. $3.59 million flowed in on the 29th and $2.20 million on the 28th, bringing the cumulative inflow to $1.3 billion and the average net asset value to approximately $1.04 billion. However, the inflow volume is limited, leading to assessments that it is insufficient to trigger a price rebound.

Sentiment data showed signs of overheated investor sentiment. XRP recorded its second-highest level of bullish sentiment on social media in two years, and news of its integration into Japan's Rakuten ecosystem fueled expectations. Rakuten Wallet users can now convert points to XRP and use them for direct payments. However, Santiment analyzed that such positive news often reflects its effects over time after initial overheating, rather than leading to an immediate price surge.

Technically, downward pressure is also dominant. XRP remains below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, and the Relative Strength Index is around 45, indicating a bearish zone close to neutral. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also shows a slightly negative trend, maintaining downward momentum. Short-term resistance is set at $1.41, and support at $1.35; if this zone breaks, further decline to $1.30 is possible.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*