"Likely to Pass Before August"...US Crypto Bill Expectations Stir the Market

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Investor sentiment is heating up again as prospects emerge that institutionalization efforts, which will determine the direction of the U.S. cryptocurrency market, could pass the final hurdle before Congress recesses in August.

Kevin Wysocki, Head of Policy at Anchorage Digital, positively assessed the possibility of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill (CLARITY) passing in an interview with Paul Barron Network on April 29 (local time). He stated, “Similar bills have already passed in the House, and support is spreading within the Democratic Party.” Although the probability of the bill passing on Polymarket dropped from 82% to 46%, he interpreted this as a natural adjustment occurring during the legislative process. He also outlined a schedule beginning with a vote in the Senate Banking Committee in May, followed by a full Senate session in June, House processing in July, and then presidential signing.

Key variables for the bill's passage are political ethics provisions and the reconciliation of banking sector interests. Wysocki explained that ethics regulations demanded by some lawmakers could be a point of contention in negotiations but are sufficiently adjustable. In particular, analysis suggests that the banking sector is highly likely to cooperate in passing the bill to design regulations favorable to stablecoin revenue structures. The assessment that the stablecoin regulation act GENIUS has laid the groundwork for market establishment was also presented.

The market structure bill is identified as an opportunity to promote the re-evaluation of major assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP. Wysocki emphasized that tokenization technology will enhance financial system efficiency and strengthen the dollar-centric order. Administrative policies, such as the strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, are also working in conjunction with legislation to strengthen the industry's foundation.

Changes in the regulatory stance of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are also cited as a variable. Wysocki predicted that a changed position from the past could act as a short-term risk, but in the long term, a clear legal framework would govern the market. The trend of increasing market transparency is also continuing as administrative actions by regulatory authorities and legislation align.

The U.S. cryptocurrency industry appears to be moving beyond political debate and entering a core area of institutional finance. Institutional investors are adjusting their portfolios, anticipating increased liquidity following the bill's passage. The market views the May Senate vote as a crucial turning point for future trends, and it is expected that the speed of global capital inflow will accelerate as the regulatory environment stabilizes.

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