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▲ Bitcoin (BTC) © Go Da-sol
As transactions centered around individual investors have exploded, the prediction market is rapidly expanding beyond a simple speculative area into a massive financial ecosystem.
On April 29 (local time), according to investment media FXStreet, a report jointly released by Bitget Wallet, Polymarket, and Dune Analytics stated that the monthly trading volume of the prediction market reached $25.7 billion in March 2026. This represents a 95% surge compared to approximately $1.2 billion in 2025.
The transaction structure was strictly centered around individual investors. During the first quarter, 82% of Polymarket users recorded transactions under $10,000, and transactions over $100,000 accounted for only 2.5%. The average transaction size was mostly small transactions around $35, and even mid-sized investors averaged only $392. This shows that millions of individual transactions, not institution-led large transactions, are growing the market.
By asset, cryptocurrencies served as the key entry path. Bitcoin (BTC) attracted approximately 593,000 users, recording a total trading volume of $5.42 billion, with an average transaction size of $3.16. Major altcoin transactions, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP (Ripple), and Solana (SOL), were also centered around small bets of $2-3. However, it was also observed that as user activity increased, the proportion of cryptocurrency decreased from 39.6% to 36.8%, and the proportion of real-world events such as sports expanded.
Notably, sports and political events emerged as new growth drivers. The proportion of sports transactions was 22.7% among individual investors but increased to 29.2% among mid-sized investors, and political events maintained approximately 28% overall. The political market generated approximately $1 billion in transactions in the first quarter alone, with election-related transactions accounting for $942 million of this.
The report assessed that the prediction market is functioning as a macroeconomic signal beyond simple transactions. Users are increasing their time spent by participating in various categories rather than just increasing transaction sizes, and this structure is driving market expansion. Accordingly, the annual trading volume is projected to grow to $240 billion by 2026 and up to $1 trillion by 2030.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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