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Hello. I'm Seo Jin-hyuk, a macro strategist from Wall Street. Today, April 12, 2026, the market is still searching for direction amidst geopolitical tensions from the Middle East and complex macroeconomic indicators. Especially with ongoing breaking news of negotiations between the US and Iran, the cryptocurrency market, classified as a risky asset, is drawing investors' attention with its extreme volatility.
Where is the market looking now? Data shows a steady flow of institutional investor inflows and robust performance for Bitcoin and Ethereum, yet at the same time, the extreme greed index still points to 'extreme fear'. This is evidence that market participants' anxieties persist, suggesting that a cautious approach is needed rather than clear signals for short-term direction.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change | 7d Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $73060.0 | +0.22% | +8.42% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2285.56 | +1.90% | +10.47% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.35 | -0.09% | +2.86% |
| Solana (SOL) | $84.94 | +0.18% | +4.88% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.093104 | -0.58% | +1.14% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 16 (Extreme Fear) | Prev. Day: 15 | - |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | $611.07 | +0.14% | - |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | N/A | N/A | - |
| VIX Fear Index | 29.75 | - | - |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.29% | - | - |
| Bitcoin Funding Rate | -0.000081 | -0.01% | - |
| Ethereum Funding Rate | 0.000083 | +0.01% | - |
The market is currently on high alert for breaking news regarding negotiations between the US and Iran. According to a New York Times report, both sides continued negotiations until dawn Pakistan time, and Iranian media reported that talks are expected to resume on the 12th. An easing of tensions in the Middle East could act as a positive signal for risky assets, and indeed, Bitcoin showed a short-term rebound, touching $73,000 on news of reduced Middle East risks.
However, the Dollar Index remains at a high level of 120.6565, indicating continued upward pressure on the dollar. The US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.29% and the 2-year Treasury yield at 3.78% still point to a high-interest rate environment, and the short-term/long-term spread of 0.51% does not completely dispel recession concerns. These macroeconomic indicators could restrict the overall liquidity supply to the risky asset market.
An interesting point is the news that Iran might demand Bitcoin or stablecoins as payment for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This suggests that the 'de-dollarization' movement originating from the Middle East could spread to blockchain-based payment systems, potentially increasing the practical utility of cryptocurrencies in the long term.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,060.0, up +0.22% over 24 hours and +8.42% over 7 days. However, with BTC dominance remaining at 57.15%, a clear polarization phenomenon is observed within the market. According to CoinDesk analysis, over the past 6 weeks in the $65,000-$73,000 range, institutions have been buying Bitcoin, while others (whales, medium-sized holders, miners, and some countries) have shown a strong trend of selling or reducing their holdings.
Notably, MicroStrategy (MSTR) is estimated to have purchased approximately 3,447 BTC ($250 million) through its preferred stock STRC, and US spot ETFs also saw a net inflow of about $240.4 million (approximately 357.1 billion KRW) on the 10th (local time), supporting the downside. This demonstrates institutional investors' continued confidence in Bitcoin. However, the Bitcoin funding rate recorded a slight negative at -0.01%, indicating a weakening of short-term buying sentiment in the futures market.
While some experts offer optimistic forecasts that Bitcoin will surpass $80,000 and even reach $100,000, there are also concurrent warnings that it could sharply fall to $40,000, or even $38,000. It is uncertain whether the short-term rebound due to easing Middle East risks will lead to sustained upward momentum, and whether Bitcoin breaks past $75,300 will be a key variable to trigger a massive short squeeze.
Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $2285.56, showing strength against Bitcoin with a +1.90% rise over 24 hours and +10.47% over 7 days. On the 10th (local time), approximately $64.9 million (about 96.4 billion KRW) flowed into US Ethereum spot ETFs, and $2.2 billion poured into the derivatives market, raising the possibility of a major bull run.
Ethereum is gaining a relative advantage over Bitcoin, driven by a simultaneous decrease in exchange supply, expansion of network activity, and capital inflows. This can be interpreted as a sign of a major capital shift, with 'Bitcoin going and Ethereum rising', and some analysts predict that Ethereum could soar to $8,000 within the next six months.
XRP showed a -0.09% change over 24 hours at $1.35, but rose +2.86% over 7 days. Expectations that XRP's regulatory shackles will be removed on April 16th, leading it into a bull market, coexist with price targets of breaking $1.35 and reaching $1.6, and even long-term optimism that it could surpass $1,000 within five years.
Looking at the top 10 gainers in Binance's USDT-M futures market today, the explosive surge of AI-themed coins is noticeable. AIOTUSDT rose +161.97%, AINUSDT +76.45%, and SKYAIUSDT +58.18%, indicating that AI-related projects are receiving intense market attention. This demonstrates that the era of AI agents, as predicted by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, is emerging as a core theme that will shake up the virtual asset market.
In addition, Shiba Inu is expected to see a price rebound following news of a 237% surge in burn rate and massive accumulation by whales. Cardano (ADA) is also seeing the possibility of entering a full-fledged rebound phase due to large-scale whale accumulation and the formation of a golden cross.
The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 16, indicating a state of 'Extreme Fear'. Although it saw a slight increase from 15 the previous day, it still shows that overall market sentiment is highly subdued. This fear is not unrelated to the geopolitical risks in the Middle East and warnings that market liquidity is drying up as trading volume has halved since Bitcoin's all-time high.
However, paradoxically, extreme fear is often interpreted as a bottom signal. The steady buying by institutional investors, Ethereum's strong fundamentals, and the explosive rise of AI-themed coins suggest that significant capital and opportunities still exist within the market. Furthermore, moves by the Japanese government to officially classify Bitcoin as a 'financial product', recognizing it as an institutional asset, will positively impact long-term market stability and credibility.
While expectations of easing geopolitical risks from the Middle East and steady institutional capital inflows support the market's downside, Ethereum and AI-themed coins are injecting short-term vitality into the market amidst 'extreme fear' investor sentiment. However, Bitcoin's price direction is still expected to increase volatility due to the supply-demand imbalance between institutions and individuals.
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silkcreek
·흠, 좀 복잡하네.
funkybeetle76
·멋진 분석! 분명 좋은 결과 있을 거예요
비오는날
·이게 뭔소리야 뭔 코인이 이렇게 복잡해
비오는날
·와 미쳤다, 비트코인 7만 3천 달러 돌파라니!
소곤소곤
·와! 시장 분석이 너무 훌륭해요! 👍