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I am Seo Jin-hyuk, a macro strategist from Wall Street. As of April 10, 2026, the market is engaged in a complex tug-of-war between geopolitical risks in the Middle East and macroeconomic indicators. Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery, holding the $70,000 level, but the investor sentiment index still points to 'extreme fear'. Taking the question of where the market is looking as the core, I will clearly analyze the market's direction through data and figures.
Recently, the US stock market seemed to stage a relief rally, closing higher, but Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced net outflows for two consecutive days. While news of a ceasefire negotiation between Iran and Israel/Lebanon temporarily improved risk appetite, uncertainties such as the fragility of the ceasefire and the possibility of Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz still weigh on the market. In this unstable environment, we need to closely examine how interest rates, liquidity, and risk appetite will unfold.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change Rate | 7d Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $71771.0 | +0.92% | +7.26% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2188.97 | -0.07% | +6.14% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.34 | +0.01% | +2.10% |
| Solana (SOL) | $83.29 | +0.84% | +5.57% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.092499 | +0.10% | +2.25% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 16 (Extreme Fear) | Previous Day: 14 (Extreme Fear) | N/A |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | $610.19 | +0.68% | N/A |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | N/A | +0.62% (US stock market's 3 major indices closed higher) | N/A |
| VIX Fear Index | 29.4 | N/A | N/A |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.29% | N/A | N/A |
| US 2-Year Treasury Yield | 3.79% | N/A | N/A |
| Yield Spread (10y-2y) | 0.50% | N/A | N/A |
| Effective Federal Funds Rate | 3.64% | N/A | N/A |
| BTC Funding Rate | 0.00% | +0.00% | N/A |
| ETH Funding Rate | 0.00% | +0.00% | N/A |
The biggest topic in the current market is undoubtedly the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. While news of a ceasefire negotiation between Israel and Lebanon is positive, Iran's mention of the possibility of continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Prime Minister Netanyahu's determination to continue attacks on Hezbollah still heighten uncertainty. This escalation of tension is directly impacting the risky asset market, leading to a surge in international oil prices and Bitcoin prices.
US economic indicators showed mixed trends. The Q4 GDP growth rate last year was 0.5%, falling short of the forecast (0.7%), but the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in February rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, meeting market expectations. This suggests that inflation concerns may be somewhat alleviated and, coupled with remarks from Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House National Economic Council (NEC), stating that "interest rates should be lower," could stimulate expectations for a Fed rate cut.
The Trump administration's movements are also noteworthy. Along with urging the passage of the Crypto Asset Market Structure Act (Clarity Act), it is promoting measures to relax regulations on the inclusion of alternative assets within 401(k) retirement plans through the Department of Labor. This could be a powerful catalyst, increasing the possibility of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum being incorporated into mainstream institutions.
Bitcoin rose +0.92% over the past 24 hours to $71,771, successfully defending the $70,000 support level. However, the $72,000 resistance level remains strong, and some analyses suggest that a lack of spot demand is hindering a rally. BTC spot ETFs recorded net outflows for two consecutive days, indicating cautious institutional money movement. Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley's approval of Bitcoin spot ETF sales, signaling its entry into the institutional sphere, is a very positive long-term signal.
Interestingly, bullish sentiment is expanding in the Bitcoin options market. Investment demand is particularly concentrated in $80,000 call options (bets on price increases), with open interest for $80,000 call options expiring at the end of June exceeding $1.6 billion on Deribit. This contrasts with the current 'extreme fear' sentiment (Fear & Greed Index 16) and is interpreted as an important indicator showing the market's hidden bullish potential.
The BTC funding rate remains at a neutral 0.00%, indicating that excessive leveraged long positions have not accumulated. According to CoinGlass data, if BTC breaks above $71,263, short positions worth $8.7 million could be forcibly liquidated, meaning a short squeeze in the short term cannot be ruled out. Analysis also suggests that if oil prices stabilize, the Fed's interest rate cut timeline could be brought forward, which would be positive for Bitcoin.
Ethereum (ETH) saw a slight decrease of -0.07% over the past 24 hours but maintained a strong trend with a +6.14% increase over 7 days. The ETH spot ETF turned to net inflow in just one day, showing continued institutional interest. While there was news of the Ethereum Foundation selling $10.21 million worth of ETH, this can be interpreted as securing funds for ecosystem expansion, and some analyses suggest a 'surge signal' has appeared, replicating an 8-year-old pattern.
Ripple (XRP) showed a flat trend with a +0.01% increase over 24 hours. There are rosy predictions that XRP will break through a $100 billion payment network and reach the $1.90 mark, along with analysis that large whale investors are accumulating an all-time high of 11.33 billion XRP, preparing for a 'supply shock rally'. However, at the same time, there are warnings that due to a sharp cooling in the derivatives market and technical bearish signals, it might fail to break the $1.39 resistance and could fall to $0.86, indicating strong conflicting signals.
Solana (SOL) rose +0.84%, but analysis suggests it faces further downward pressure due to institutional fund outflows and spreading bearish signals in the derivatives market. Dogecoin (DOGE) saw a slight increase of +0.10%, but there are forecasts of a potential entry into a downward channel and a retreat to the $0.08 level. Cardano (ADA) is also experiencing a difficult period, having plummeted over 90% from its peak, but is seeking ecosystem expansion through the creation of the Orion Fund.
The growth of the stablecoin market is remarkable. The supply of Polygon-based stablecoins reached an all-time high of $3.6 billion, and MoonPay supports stablecoin payments in offline stores. The Bank of Korea maintains its stance that the issuance structure of KRW stablecoins should be bank-centric, and Shinhan Card and KB Card are strengthening stablecoin payment collaborations, indicating active movements towards institutional integration and expanded utilization. The emergence of deposit tokens as a hybrid model between stablecoins and CBDCs is also noteworthy.
In the Binance USDT-M futures market, RAVEUSDT, AGTUSDT, AKEUSDT, MAGMAUSDT, and others recorded explosive growth rates of over 70% in 24 hours. The high volatility and funding rates of these coins indicate strong short-term speculative sentiment. Particularly, RAVEUSDT surged +223.34% in 24 hours, representing the speculative fervor of the market.
The current Fear & Greed Index remains at 16, indicating 'extreme fear'. While it rose slightly from 14 the previous day, market anxiety is still dominant. Such extreme fear can sometimes be interpreted as a signal of market bottom formation. Tom Lee, chairman of Fundstrat Global Advisors, also mentioned "visible signals that a market bottom has formed," listing energy, Magnificent 7, software, BTC, and ETH as preferred investment areas.
The memecoin market has transformed into a 'speculative arena where funds are plundered from each other in seconds,' to the extent that analyses suggest extreme speculative sentiment is rampant. The fact that the average holding time for memecoins on the Solana chain is only 58 seconds clearly illustrates this market characteristic. Conversely, the surge in $80,000 call options in the Bitcoin options market allows us to observe the movements of institutional and whale investors who anticipate a long-term rise amidst this short-term speculative sentiment.
Amidst the unstable ceasefire from the Middle East and mixed signals from macroeconomic indicators, Bitcoin has defended the $70,000 mark. However, whether it breaks the $72,000 resistance and the alleviation of 'extreme fear' investor sentiment will be key variables determining the short-term market direction.
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