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Friends, on the first day of April, the global financial market is still in unpredictable waters. Expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, fluctuations in oil prices, and uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election and interest rate policies are having complex effects on the virtual asset market. But even in this chaos, we must always look for opportunities, right? Let's analyze it together with a cool head.
Recently, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated, causing international oil prices to show an unstable trend, surpassing $105 per barrel. Historically, sharp rises in oil prices have negatively impacted Bitcoin prices, leading to significant market concerns. However, there was also hopeful news. Former President Trump mentioned that "the war with Iran will end soon," raising expectations for peace in the Middle East, and accordingly, Bitcoin prices appear to be stabilizing. The Iranian president also stated his willingness to end the war if security is guaranteed, so if Middle East risks gradually dissipate, risk asset preference sentiment could recover, positively influencing the virtual asset market.
The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate policy remains a matter of paramount concern. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of an interest rate freeze in April is as high as 98.4%, and the probability of an interest rate cut by June is low at 3.9%. Chairman Powell also stated that the current monetary policy is in a good position to observe the impact of the Iran war, suggesting that the current stance will likely be maintained for the time being. In this situation, the US stock market showed strong recovery, with the Nasdaq surging over 3%, and Bitcoin also rose alongside the US stock market rally, showing a clear recovery. Although Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 index over the past six months, analysis suggests that historically, such imbalances can be a springboard for a rebound, so we need to monitor market trends even more closely.
The regulatory environment remains a major variable for the virtual asset market. Former President Trump's remarks about blocking cryptocurrency bills have heightened tensions over regulatory uncertainty. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson predicted that the passage of the CLARITY Act (Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act) could take more than 10 years, making its passage virtually impossible. However, there is also positive news. A poll showing that 80% of crypto supporters are enthusiastic about the midterm elections indicates growing political interest in cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, CoinShares' Nasdaq listing, Moody's first rating for Bitcoin-backed bonds, and Morgan Stanley's launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF are all good signals clearly showing that virtual assets are gradually being incorporated into the institutional system.
Bitcoin still receives the most attention as the market leader. Although price volatility has been high recently, many analyses suggest that its fundamentals remain strong. Let's take a closer look.
Bitcoin recently attempted to break above $68,000, but fears of it falling below $60,000 due to external variables such as Middle East risk also intensified. However, on-chain data advises that below $54,000 could be an optimal opportunity for bottom buying. Interestingly, 'stop-loss' movements were detected where long-term Bitcoin holders sold at a loss, which can be interpreted as a sign of rebound because, in past cases, this often led to reduced market selling pressure and the formation of a bottom. Additionally, analysis suggests that a rebound in the copper/gold ratio could be a signal preparing Bitcoin for an ultra-bull market entry. Positive forecasts also include opinions that further currency issuance by major countries is inevitable, leading Bitcoin to surge to $1 million as an inflation hedge asset.
Institutional investors continue to actively enter the Bitcoin market. In March, $1.2 billion flowed net into Bitcoin spot ETFs, and recently, $100.64 million flowed net, confirming steady institutional demand. In particular, Morgan Stanley's launch of its own branded Bitcoin spot ETF can be interpreted as a strategic move to attract high-net-worth individuals. News that the US Department of Labor is pushing for allowing retirement funds to invest in virtual assets suggests that Bitcoin will be integrated even more deeply into the traditional financial system. Square's introduction of Bitcoin payments to 4 million merchants in the US is a very good sign that Bitcoin is establishing itself as a powerful means to replace card payments in real life.
Recently, a whale dormant for 5 years transferred 5,500 BTC to a new wallet, and the Bhutanese government also transferred an additional 375 BTC, showing selling movements. Additionally, large-scale Bitcoin movements were detected, such as a whale dormant for 2 years depositing 600 BTC to Binance. Deposits to exchanges are typically interpreted as for selling purposes, but large-scale withdrawals to new addresses are sometimes interpreted as for holding purposes. While these whale movements can increase short-term market volatility, in the long term, they can be an opportunity for the market to become more robust through a process of supply redistribution.
In addition to Bitcoin, Ethereum and various altcoins are actively moving amidst their own issues. We have summarized noteworthy news.
Ethereum has recently been making all-out efforts to defend the $2,000 support level. Although there were difficult situations, such as $265.8 million flowing out of institutional funds, the reversal to a net inflow of $4.83 million into Ethereum spot ETFs after 8 consecutive days of net outflows is a positive sign. Some analysts predict that Ethereum has given a rebound signal by breaking above $2,100 and could reach $8,000 in the second half of the year. The news that Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin bought Swiss franc-pegged stablecoins is also interesting.
XRP has recently been precariously maintaining the $1.3 support level, and institutional and individual investors' i
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