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Hello, this is Jinhyuk Seo, a macro strategist from Wall Street. As of September 12, 2026, the market is seeking direction amidst complex signals. While the US stock market has shown a solid upward trend, macroeconomic indicators and the crypto market's movements are still grappling with the key variables of interest rates and liquidity. I will provide a clear analysis of where the market is currently looking, using data and figures.
Currently, market tension is rising due to increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy following the announcement of the US August Consumer Price Index (CPI). Specifically, a clear weakening of buying interest from US institutional investors is observed, with continuous large-scale capital outflows from Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and Coinbase premium recording negative values. This suggests it's time to consider the possibility of short-term corrections and sideways movements.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change | 7d Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 비트코인 (BTC) | $77184.0 | +0.82% | -3.20% |
| 이더리움 (ETH) | $2514.87 | +3.18% | +2.40% |
| 리플 (XRP) | $1.36 | +1.66% | -3.40% |
| 솔라나 (SOL) | $102.39 | +3.83% | +0.20% |
| 도지코인 (DOGE) | $0.084288 | +1.70% | -0.80% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 63 (Greed) | Previous Day 56 (Greed) | - |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $764.29 | +0.85% | - |
| NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) | $714.88 | +0.87% | - |
| VIX 공포지수 | 17.3 | - | - |
| 미국 10년물 국채금리 | 4.95% | - | - |
| BTC 펀딩비 (24h) | - | +0.01% | - |
| ETH 펀딩비 (24h) | - | +0.00% | - |
Currently, the US 10-year Treasury yield remains at a high level of 4.95%. This signifies rising capital costs and liquidity absorption, posing a burden on risk assets. The short-long spread (10y-2y) is still in the reversal resolution phase at 0.39%, but it's important to recall the trends observed before and after past recessions.
The recently announced US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, meeting market expectations. While seemingly positive, a Goldman Sachs analyst noted that this CPI data did not fully reflect recent energy price increases, and there was little evidence that inflation was returning to its target in the short term. This could instead amplify uncertainty regarding the Fed's interest rate decisions.
Meanwhile, the White House National Economic Council (NEC) chairman mentioned a slowdown in inflation over the past three months but added that President Trump would comment if the Fed raises interest rates. This suggests the possibility of political intervention in monetary policy decisions, potentially adding another layer of volatility to the market. News that Wall Street big players are moving out of the bond market in search of 6-10% returns is a snapshot of changing risk appetite for funds in a high-interest-rate environment.
The US stock market maintained a solid upward trend, with the S&P 500 rising +0.85% and the NASDAQ 100 rising +0.87%. Notably, crypto-related stocks such as MicroStrategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), and Circle (CRCL) also showed overall gains, confirming that the positive sentiment in traditional financial markets influenced the cryptocurrency sector.
However, the fact that the VIX Fear Index remains at an unstable level of 17.3 suggests that investors' underlying risk aversion has not fully dissipated. Furthermore, an analyst's warning that investors' funds might shift to AI-related stocks with the impending Initial Public Offering (IPO) of AI company Anthropic could pose a potential threat to the liquidity of the crypto market.
Bitcoin is currently at $77184.0, up +0.82% over 24 hours, but down -3.20% over 7 days, struggling to break past the $80,000 resistance level. CryptoQuant analyzed that Bitcoin has not lost momentum but is rather encountering resistance zones based on technical indicators, valuations, and on-chain data, highly predicting sideways movement and potential correction.
Even more concerning is the continuous net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs for three consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $380.5 million (about 380.5 billion KRW). Significant outflows were observed from major ETFs, including $24.5 million from BlackRock's IBIT, $33.6 million from Fidelity's FBTC, and $36.4 million from Grayscale's GBTC. This is a clear signal of weakening buying pressure from institutional investors in the US market.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index also recorded negative values for five consecutive days, supporting the analysis that BTC buying pressure in the US market is relatively weak. QCP Capital warned that as the US 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5%, expectations for Treasury-driven liquidity are weakening, and if CPI is higher than expected or the 10-year Treasury yield surpasses 5%, further declines to $74,000-$75,000 could occur.
Conversely, 21Shares predicted that conditions are forming for Bitcoin to aim for $100,000 within the fourth quarter, believing that while it might retest $75,000 in the short term, there's a strong possibility of recovering $80,000. Companies with Bitcoin accumulation strategies, such as MicroStrategy and Cardone Capital, are continuously accumulating Bitcoin, which can be interpreted as a positive signal from a long-term perspective.
Ethereum recorded a strong rebound against Bitcoin, rising +3.18% over 24 hours to $2514.87. This appears to be influenced by a $250 million short squeeze after the US inflation data announcement. However, the net outflow of approximately $29.76 million (40 billion KRW) from Ethereum spot ETFs, turning from net inflow to net outflow in just one day, reflects an unstable supply and demand situation.
XRP recorded a -3.40% decline over 7 days, reaching $1.36, giving back its August rally gains. The Clarity Act vote, scheduled for September 15, is expected to be a major turning point, but some analysts are raising the possibility of further declines towards $1.21 or $1.10. Nevertheless, movements betting on a recapture of $1.50 within September are being observed in prediction markets, indicating divided investor perspectives.
Solana (SOL) showed a strong upward trend, rising +3.83% over 24 hours, and news that Bitwise accumulated $107.4 million worth of Solana over 20 trading days suggests continued high institutional interest. Meanwhile, some altcoin markets are experiencing extreme volatility, such as Zcash (ZEC) plummeting -3.03% in just 5 minutes after a recent 2,000% surge, drawing criticism of 'pump and dump' from Samson Mow.
The memecoin market still exhibits strong speculative movements. FLYBRAIN surged 302% in an hour on news of a follow from an a16z co-founder but then plunged over 60% in the next six hours. Hunter Biden's LAPTOP memecoin also crashed 98% immediately after launch, once again reminding investors of the risks associated with memecoin investments.
The Fear & Greed Index rose from 56 to 63 from the previous day, maintaining a 'Greed' state. This indicates that the overall sentiment of market participants is still at a greedy level, but the outflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs and the decline in Coinbase premium show that institutional investors' actual buying sentiment is weakening.
In the futures market, $609 million worth of futures positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with a particularly high liquidation ratio of 92.64% for BTC long positions, indicating large-scale losses for leveraged positions due to market volatility. While this can be seen as a process of unwinding excessive market leverage, it could act as short-term downward price pressure.
Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization is emerging as a new growth engine for the cryptocurrency market, with the trading volume of the stock derivative RWA market reaching $3.16 trillion. The push for asset tokenization in India's Maharashtra state and the pilot introduction of corporate bond settlements using CBDCs are examples of tangible progress in the RWA sector. These are positive factors that can enhance the liquidity and utility of the crypto market in the long term.
Even amidst the strength of the US stock market, the high-interest-rate environment, the Fed's uncertain monetary policy, and the outflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs are increasing short-term correction pressures on the crypto market. The market should pay attention to liquidity flows and whether key resistance levels are broken.