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Today, the Binance USDT-M futures market saw some altcoins show distinct upward movements and significant gains, even amidst the overall macroeconomic instability and the volatile trends of major cryptocurrencies. Traditional financial markets appeared relatively stable, with the US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.75% and the long-short spread maintaining a positive value of 0.47%. Indeed, the S&P 500 rose +1.42% and the NASDAQ 100 rose +1.76%, giving the impression that risk appetite was partially reviving.
However, investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is still observed to be subdued. The Fear & Greed Index fell from 28 (Fear) yesterday to 25 (Extreme Fear), remaining in a state of extreme fear. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a slight increase of +0.10% over 24 hours, but Ethereum (ETH) fell by -1.20%, XRP by -0.90%, and Solana (SOL) by -0.10%, indicating continued weakness in major altcoins. Notably, BTC's 7-day volatility was -0.40% and ETH's was -1.70%, suggesting a lack of mid-to-long-term momentum. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization was $2258.1B, and the 24-hour trading volume was $55.9B, indicating a somewhat subdued overall market activity.
Funding rates in the futures market remained very low, with BTC close to +0.00% and ETH at +0.01%. This suggests that there isn't excessive betting on long positions, but it could also reflect that market participants lack conviction about the direction. BTC open interest (OI) was $0.0B, which could mean that meaningful data aggregation is difficult or the volume of Bitcoin futures open interest in the market is extremely negligible.
Ultimately, the current market is facing several negative factors, such as continued outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and uncertainty surrounding US cryptocurrency market structure legislation, leading major coins to trend sideways or experience downward pressure. Conversely, as suggested by news headlines like "BTC trading slows...investors turn to altcoins," some investors are observed to be shifting liquidity to individual narratives or low-liquidity altcoins in search of higher profit opportunities.
VICUSDT recorded an astonishing gain of +54.96% over 24 hours, drawing significant market attention. The current price is $0.05292, with a 24-hour high of $0.06191 and a low of $0.02448, showing considerable volatility. The 24-hour trading volume was $122.2M, and open interest (OI) was $83.1M. Particularly noteworthy is the funding rate, which recorded a very low negative value of -0.19%. While prices usually rise alongside funding rates during sharp increases, VICUSDT showed the opposite phenomenon.
Looking at daily data, on August 3rd, it surged +53.35% in a single day, accompanied by a large trading volume of $121.9M. However, today, August 4th, saw only a slight increase of +0.82%, with trading volume significantly reduced to $263K compared to the previous day. This suggests that yesterday's surge was likely more driven by short position liquidations (a short squeeze) than by strong buying pressure. Furthermore, considering the news headline "'Binance Delisting' Viction 'operations and development proceeding without a hitch' clarification," Binance's decision to delist could act as strong downward pressure on this asset. In other words, the current surge should be viewed with caution as it might be the last speculative movement before delisting.
SKYAIUSDT rose +38.84% over 24 hours to $0.0405. The 24-hour trading volume was $86.8M, and open interest (OI) was $215.9M, indicating a significantly larger OI compared to trading volume. The funding rate was +0.02%, a slightly positive value.
The daily chart shows a substantial increase of +38.36% on August 3rd, accompanied by a trading volume of $86.7M. However, today, August 4th, only saw a +0.42% increase, and trading volume plummeted to $35K. This may indicate that the strong upward momentum from the previous day has now somewhat weakened. A large OI means a significant number of positions are open in the market, but if new buying interest slows, the possibility of price correction cannot be ruled out. In other words, it is time to consider the possibility of a short-term peak formation.
BTWUSDT rose +30.97% over 24 hours, trading at $0.10535. The 24-hour trading volume was $60.7M, and open interest (OI) was $181.1M, similar to SKYAIUSDT in that OI is high relative to trading volume. The funding rate remained slightly positive at +0.05%.
Daily data shows a surge of +32.10% on August 3rd, with a trading volume of $60.6M. However, on August 4th, it fell by -0.81%, and trading volume significantly decreased to $59K compared to the previous day. This can be interpreted as some selling pressure acting at the high point after the strong rise, or perhaps buying interest temporarily shifting to a wait-and-see approach. High OI still indicates strong market participant interest, but further upward movement will likely require a process of absorbing the selling pressure from the previous day's surge.
PIPPINUSDT rose +19.55% over 24 hours to $0.01926. The 24-hour trading volume was $22.7M, while open interest (OI) was a very high $386.5M. The funding rate was +0.03%, showing a positive value.
Daily chart analysis shows a +19.86% increase on August 3rd with a trading volume of $22.6M. However, today, August 4th, saw a -0.10% decrease, and trading volume was a very negligible $75K. This suggests that while yesterday's rise was backed by significant open interest, buying interest is currently greatly subdued. The overwhelmingly high OI implies a potential for short squeezes or long position liquidation risks. Therefore, cautious approach is required, as the current price may be a short-term peak.
CRWVUSDT rose +18.48% over 24 hours, trading at $86.37. The 24-hour trading volume was $17.1M, but open interest (OI) was only $35K, indicating extremely low liquidity. The funding rate was +0.00%, a neutral level.
Daily data shows a surge of +18.94% on August 3rd with a trading volume of $16.9M. Conversely, on August 4th, it fell by -0.40%, and trading volume plummeted to $120K. A surge in an asset with such remarkably low open interest appears to be a typical characteristic of a low-liquidity rally, where even a small number of trades can cause significant price fluctuations. This suggests that price manipulation by specific forces or with small amounts of capital may be easy, and it poses very high volatility risks for ordinary investors. Therefore, the likelihood of the current upward trend continuing is low, and a sharp reversal could occur at any time, which should be watched with caution.
Among the top 10 gainers, AAOIUSDT (+17.19%), TUTUSDT (+15.94%), PLTRUSDT (+15.56%), AXTIUSDT (+14.94%), and PTBUSDT (+14.01%) also share the common characteristic that after a significant surge yesterday (August 3rd), today (August 4th) their trading volumes plummeted, showing minor fluctuations. For AAOIUSDT, PLTRUSDT, and AXTIUSDT, open interest (OI) is very low ($34K ~ $72K) and funding rates remain at 0.00%, so, similar to CRWVUSDT, the possibility of speculative movements due to low liquidity cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, TUTUSDT showed high open interest of $278.3M and PTBUSDT of $6.3B, but likewise, their trading volumes significantly decreased compared to the previous day. This suggests that rather than strong overall buying interest in the market, there was a short-term inflow of funds into specific assets.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market is seeing individual altcoins surge amidst macroeconomic instability and weakness in major coins. This is interpreted as a phenomenon linked to the movement of funds to altcoins due to slowing Bitcoin trading, but most surging assets show signs of weakening momentum, with trading volumes plummeting today after large gains yesterday. Particularly, VICUSDT, which has a Binance delisting issue, and CRWVUSDT, with extremely low liquidity, carry high volatility risks, requiring extreme caution when entering new positions.