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Hello. I'm Seo Jin-hyuk, a macro strategist from Wall Street. As of August 2, 2026, the market is grappling with more complex macroeconomic indicators and unique internal headwinds within the cryptocurrency market than ever before, making it difficult to find direction. In particular, even amidst the robust performance of the U.S. stock market, expectations for interest rate cuts are receding, and the dollar continues to strengthen. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing extreme investor sentiment contraction due to Bitcoin spot ETF outflows, cold wallet security issues, and large-scale forced liquidations.
Where is the market looking now? Data clearly shows that 'risk aversion' sentiment is dominant. Interest rates, liquidity, and risk-taking flows all demand a conservative approach from investors. In particular, analysis suggests that the crypto market has entered a bottoming-out phase, with internal structural issues and external macroeconomic pressures acting simultaneously. In today's briefing, I will clearly present the market's current position and future direction, focusing on these indicators.
| Indicator | Value | 24h Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $62770.0 | -0.10% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $1843.29 | -0.70% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.06 | +0.10% |
| Solana (SOL) | $71.88 | -1.20% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.069066 | -0.90% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 27 (Fear) | Previous Day 27 (Fear) |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $747.03 | +0.72% |
| NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) | $687.99 | +0.65% |
| VIX Volatility Index | 20.51 | |
| US 10-year Treasury Yield | 4.68% | |
| US 2-year Treasury Yield | 4.23% | |
| Yield Spread (10y-2y) | 0.45% | |
| Effective Federal Funds Rate | 3.63% | |
| Dollar Index | 120.7105 | |
| BTC Funding Rate | 0.000045 | +0.00% |
| ETH Funding Rate | 0.000028 | +0.00% |
Currently, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.68%, and the 2-year Treasury yield is 4.23%, maintaining a yield spread of 0.45%. Considering the effective federal funds rate of 3.63%, the market still appears to be anticipating the possibility of the Fed's high-interest rate policy being prolonged. This implies a restriction on liquidity supply and acts as a major factor deterring investment sentiment towards risky assets.
It should also be noted that the Dollar Index remains at a high level of 120.7105. A strong dollar increases the attractiveness of U.S. assets for foreign investors, but at the same time, it burdens emerging markets and risky asset markets. This macroeconomic environment can limit capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market and encourage the exit of existing assets.
The S&P 500 rose by 0.72%, and the NASDAQ 100 by 0.65%, showing robust performance. This is largely attributed to strong earnings expectations for AI-related tech stocks and a surge in cloud revenue from some large tech companies (Amazon cloud revenue surged by 37%). However, as the headline 'Coins fall as AI stocks wobble' suggests, the volatility of AI stocks directly impacts the cryptocurrency market.
Meanwhile, the VIX Volatility Index recorded 20.51, remaining above the 20-point mark. This indicates persistent concerns about inherent market volatility. Despite the upward trend of Nasdaq and S&P 500, the VIX index proves that investors are not letting their guard down against unexpected shocks.
Bitcoin (BTC) recorded a sideways movement, dropping -0.10% over 24 hours to $62770.0. On a weekly basis, it fell by -2.40%, indicating bearish pressure. Notably, approximately 383.3 billion KRW ($265.4 million) flowed out of US Bitcoin spot ETFs yesterday, marking two consecutive days of net outflows. This suggests a continued exodus of institutional capital, adding to the market's downward pressure.
Renowned analyst PlanB analyzed that Bitcoin has entered a bottoming-out phase, which could take 1 to 3 months. Furthermore, the Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability has shaken trust in self-custody, significantly deteriorating market sentiment. According to Santiment, positive opinions related to Bitcoin were tallied at 0.58 cases for every 1 negative opinion, reflecting an unprecedented level of fear.
Ethereum (ETH) fell by -0.70% over 24 hours to $1843.29. On a weekly basis, it dropped by -1.40%, showing a bearish trend similar to Bitcoin. However, US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately 12.9 billion KRW ($9 million), marking two consecutive days of net inflows. While this contrasts with Bitcoin spot ETFs, it is still a negligible amount to reverse the overall market sentiment.
News that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes sold some ETH, realizing a loss of approximately $241,000, can be interpreted as an example of institutional investors' cautious approach to Ethereum. Large-scale long position liquidations and macroeconomic instability are increasing concerns about the breakdown of Ethereum's $1,850 support level.
Ripple (XRP) saw a slight increase of +0.10% over 24 hours but remains bearish, dropping -3.50% on a weekly basis. The possibility of breaking the $1 support level by the end of August has been raised, and the release of 1 billion XRP tokens combined with macroeconomic headwinds is increasing downward price pressure. Solana (SOL) also fell by -1.20% over 24 hours and -3.40% weekly, facing the risk of breaking its $72 support level.
In the stablecoin market, three simultaneous shifts are occurring: 'overseas capital outflows,' 'exchange market share wars,' and 'won-denominated stablecoin dominance competition.' Net overseas outflows from the domestic stablecoin market amount to hundreds of billions of KRW each month, and market restructuring is active, with Naver and Kakao officially entering the won-denominated stablecoin race. The European Central Bank (ECB) has identified the proliferation of stablecoins as a significant threat to the financial system, hinting at the possibility of stricter regulation.
Binance experienced a net outflow of approximately $2.2 billion in stablecoins in July, with cumulative net outflows reaching $7 billion since the beginning of the year. This indicates that investors are withdrawing funds from the market rather than reinvesting them, and a recovery in stablecoin demand is crucial for a market rebound. Meanwhile, innovation continues within the DeFi sector, with Uniswap v4 accounting for half of quarterly DEX trading volume just 18 months after its launch.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market's Fear & Greed Index stands at 27, remaining in the 'Fear' zone, the same figure as the previous day. This clearly demonstrates the pessimistic investment sentiment pervading the market. Notably, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained in negative premium territory for 75 consecutive days, strongly indicating a prolonged trend of US institutional investor capital exiting the market.
Overall, social media also shows a sharp deterioration in investment sentiment towards Bitcoin. Cold wallet security concerns further amplify individual investors' anxiety, reflecting a stronger sense of fear than during previous major negative events. These psychological factors are becoming the primary reason for delaying market recovery.
Over the past 24 hours, futures positions totaling $184 million were forcibly liquidated across major exchanges. Specifically, $94.36 million worth of BTC long positions were liquidated at a rate of 95.41%, and $49.31 million worth of ETH long positions were liquidated at a rate of 89.47%. This signifies that long position investors incurred significant losses as the market decline accelerated, and it serves as a warning about the potential for further market downturns.
The funding rates for BTC and ETH remain low at 0.000045% and 0.000028%, respectively. This indicates a significant contraction in demand for long positions, suggesting that market participants are approaching with a conservative outlook rather than expecting further upside. The overall futures supply and demand reflect bearish market sentiment.
Amid macroeconomic uncertainty, security concerns within the cryptocurrency market, and institutional capital outflow, the market has entered a bottoming-out phase characterized by extreme fear.
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