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Hello, I'm an energetic senior analyst in the blockchain market. Today, July 26, 2026, the market seems to be taking a breather before a significant turning point. However, I believe this period is by no means quiet. Rather, it should be seen as a time to prepare for the coming storm of big changes. From now on, let's look at the major issues together and talk about what opportunities and challenges we should prepare for.
Recent macroeconomic indicators and movements in traditional markets are directly impacting our cryptocurrency market. Especially ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the earnings announcements of big tech companies, a sense of tension prevails across the market.
Rising international oil prices are fueling inflation concerns, which could lead to pressure for benchmark interest rate hikes. US business activity in July is expected to continue expanding, but the impact of surging oil prices on inflation and interest rates is a variable that cannot be ignored. Warnings are even emerging that the stock market could face a significant shock if the US 10-year Treasury yield surpasses 5%, suggesting that the market in the second half of the year will truly be put to the test.
The fortunes of big tech companies are mixed. Apple is showing positive signs, with projections up to $340 ahead of its earnings release. However, despite record-breaking performance, Micron's stock plummeted 25% in a month, and Tesla plunged 14% after its Q2 earnings announcement, shaking even Elon Musk's trust premium. SpaceX is also facing warnings of potential stock price declines from both ChatGPT and Morgan Stanley. This demonstrates that the market is sensitive to macroeconomic environments beyond the fundamentals of specific companies. Such instability in traditional markets can lead to a contraction in investment sentiment, putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market as well.
Bitcoin is taking a breather in the $64,000 range, failing to break past the resistance level near $67,000. The main reason for its inability to surpass $68,000 is analyzed to be the presence of a sell-off amounting to 3.55 million BTC. Ahead of the FOMC, leverage in the futures market has also sharply decreased, clearly showing investors maintaining a wait-and-see attitude.
Notably, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced net outflows for two consecutive days, with over $240 million (approximately 351.3 billion KRW) withdrawn. Outflows were also observed from BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs. This suggests a rapid shift in institutional investor demand, which could exert downward pressure on Bitcoin's price in the short term. Furthermore, the fact that Coinbase's Bitcoin premium index has recorded negative values for 67 consecutive days can be seen as a sign of weakening buying interest from US institutional investors.
However, there are also positive signs. According to an analysis by Fidelity Digital Assets, the supply of Bitcoin held by Long-Term Holders has reached an all-time high of 15 million BTC. This is an indicator of strong investor conviction, and the fact that it is approaching levels similar to on-chain metrics observed during market cycle bottoms in the past is very positive from a long-term perspective. Additionally, a whale trader entering a $38.67 million long position with 40x leverage and placing large buy orders in the $63,500-$63,674 range indicates that certain forces are trying to support the current price level.
The situation for Bitcoin mining companies is mixed. Bitdeer is maintaining a 'zero BTC treasury' strategy, selling all mined BTC to secure cash liquidity, while Poolin, once the world's largest mining pool, has filed for bankruptcy protection under $500 million in debt, facing collapse. The restructuring of the mining market could affect the entire Bitcoin ecosystem, requiring continuous observation.
Interesting movements are also being observed in the altcoin market.
Ethereum spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for three consecutive weeks, showing a trend of Wall Street funds moving from the Hyperliquid (HYPE) ETF to Ethereum. This is a positive sign that institutional investors are beginning to show active interest in Ethereum, following Bitcoin. However, the recent cessation of a five-day consecutive net inflow streak and a net outflow of approximately $70.7 million (about 103.4 billion KRW) means that short-term volatility should be considered.
Simultaneously, 658,600 ETH have been withdrawn from major exchanges, and bullish sentiment in the derivatives market has reached a six-month high, indicating growing anticipation for Ethereum. However, such overheating signals could lead to rapid price fluctuations, so careful monitoring is required.
Ripple (XRP) has recorded $2.6 billion in Real-World Asset (RWA) inflows over the past six months, excluding stablecoins, ranking second only to the BNB Chain. This is a very positive indicator that the XRP Ledger (XRPL)'s RWA ecosystem is growing rapidly. XRPL's RWA asset size has reached $4.38 billion, making it the sixth-largest RWA blockchain.
However, there are analyses suggesting that the upward momentum is faltering as inflows from individual and institutional investors have stopped. AI indicated a possibility of rising to $1.35 by the end of Q3, but the chance of breaking $2 was only 5%. Furthermore, concerns are being raised that a large-scale selling pressure could occur as the Ripple Foundation plans to release $1.1 billion worth of XRP on August 1st. While some analyses suggest that XRP's long-term downtrend structure resembles the symmetrical triangle pattern observed just before its 66,000% surge in 2017, warnings are also being issued that a break of the support level could lead to a significant decline.
Cardano (ADA) is fighting back against criticisms of its slow development speed. It increased its RWA volume by 23.1% in a month, ranking first among all blockchains in terms of growth rate. This is a positive sign that large investors are flocking to Cardano, seeing its potential, and it appears that its steady growth based on research and verification is bearing fruit.
Some altcoins, such as WhiteBitCoin (WBT), Hyperliquid (HYPE), and Tron (TRX), are generating anticipation that they are on the verge of new all-time highs, with mentions of potential surges anticipating the weekend. In contrast, Dogecoin (DOGE) could see an additional 20% short-term decline, but a long-term bullish forecast suggests it will reach $2 by mid-2028. Shiba Inu (SHIB) has seen its Layer 2 network activity surge by 78%, yet its price has weakened by 78%, showing a decoupling phenomenon between network activity and price.
Blockchain technology continues to evolve and seek new applications. Overseas crypto exchanges are promoting 'Token Nics,' such as tokenized SK Hynix products, as a new growth engine, recording tens of billions of won in daily trading volume. Robinhood Chain's stock token asset volume has also surpassed $70 million, with major stocks like GameStop, Nvidia, and SpaceX showing high trading volumes. This is a positive sign that blockchain technology is combining with traditional financial assets to create new value.
Meanwhile, interest and efforts in blockchain security are also growing. The latest draft of the Clarity Act includes provisions for incentive programs for white-hat hackers and security researchers, which is positive for strengthening digital asset infrastructure protection through rewards for public interest activities such as vulnerability discovery and assistance in recovering stolen assets. However, in the first half of this year alone, 224 cryptocurrency hacking incidents resulted in total damages of $1.32 billion, and even recently, $9.7 million worth of cryptocurrencies were stolen from a Triple-A wallet, indicating that security remains a critical challenge. While white-hat negotiations are sometimes proposed, as in the AFX Trader hacking case, hackers make tracing difficult by swapping assets into other coins, so investors must always remain vigilant.
The news that Shenzhen authorities in China have identified and shut down numerous one-person media accounts related to virtual assets demonstrates strengthening regulatory oversight. While this can be seen as an effort to foster a healthy market, the impact of regulatory uncertainty on the market must also be considered.
Artificial intelligence (AI) technology is bringing innovation not only to blockchain but to all industrial sectors. Nvidia is pursuing the establishment of a joint AI research institute with Seoul National University, and SK is strengthening its $750 billion AI infrastructure cooperation with global big tech companies like Nvidia. The fact that major Korean business leaders, including Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong, Hyundai Motor Group Chairman Chung Eui-sun, and Naver founder Lee Hae-jin, met with CEO Jensen Huang at Nvidia's headquarters is a strong signal that Korea is playing a pivotal role in AI semiconductors and related industries. Founder Lee Hae-jin also revealed that Nvidia and Brookfield plan to invest 14.6 trillion KRW in Naver. The fact that Korea's K-semiconductor capabilities are attracting attention in the global AI market to the extent that it's said "There is no AI revolution without Korea" is a great asset for us.
The growth of the AI industry has many areas where it can create synergy with blockchain technology. Blockchain is highly likely to be used for data processing for AI model training, building decentralized AI networks, and AI-based financial services. The development of innovative technologies always creates new investment opportunities, so continuous attention should be paid to the intersection of AI and blockchain.
Today, the market is sending out various complex signals. While net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and macroeconomic uncertainties foreshadow short-term volatility, the accumulation by long-term holders, the movement of funds into Ethereum spot ETFs, and the growth of the RWA market are showing us new doors of opportunity.
In particular, the convergence of AI and blockchain technology is one of the most important trends we should pay attention to going forward. Rather than simply being anxious during the market's breathing period, I believe it is important to use this time for preparation and learning for the future. I hope we all continue to make successful investments by analyzing coldly based on data and facts, and with well-founded optimism!
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