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Hello everyone! I'm your blockchain tech influencer, Senior Analyst. Today, I'll break down the vibrant and energetic news from the blockchain market in an easy and fun way. Over the past 24 hours, the market has been full of diverse news, and we'll pinpoint the key highlights we should pay attention to and predict future trends together. Unfounded optimism is strictly forbidden! We will analyze everything coolly based on numbers and facts.
The Bitcoin (BTC) market has recently been filled with a heated debate about its 'bottom'. Some analysts diagnose the current sideways movement as a period of 'fake stability', predicting that a significant decline will begin in August and the actual bottom will only form in October. They argue that based on past bear markets often seeing corrections of over 80%, the current approximately 50% drop from the previous peak cannot rule out further declines.
However, not all signals are negative. There's news that a second rare Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish divergence has been spotted on Bitcoin's weekly chart since the 2022 low. In the past, such signals have led to surges of over 700%. Furthermore, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz suggested the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000, emphasizing that breaking past $80,000 is a crucial factor.
The movements of institutional investors are also noteworthy. Although Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy (MSTR) sold 3,588 BTC, a significant amount of capital flowed into BlackRock's cryptocurrency ETF, showing positive signs of recovering institutional demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Coinbase CEO also evaluated Bitcoin as having already established itself as 'digital gold'. This is a good sign that Bitcoin is being recognized as a store of value beyond a mere speculative asset, because it enhances Bitcoin's stability and trustworthiness from a long-term perspective.
Ethereum (ETH) is showing interesting patterns in whale movements and technical indicators. While Ethereum whales with approximately $2.8 billion in buying power have emerged, an increase in Ethereum deposits on the Binance exchange could act as short-term selling pressure, according to analysis.
However, positive signals have also been detected on the technical front. News that Ethereum has broken through the resistance line of a double-bottom pattern and is on a rally trajectory towards $2,163 gives hope to investors. This can be interpreted as a strong buy signal in chart analysis, because it suggests the possibility of a downtrend ending and a transition to an uptrend. Furthermore, it's worth noting in terms of market liquidity that the top 5 exchanges manage a total of 6.66 million ETH, with Upbit recording the highest trading volume among them.
XRP has recently shown several complex signals, deepening investors' concerns. Firstly, a warning has been issued that it could fall further to $0.75, trading below all four major moving averages. Additionally, the simultaneous decrease in the three key on-chain metrics of the XRP Ledger—transaction count, transaction volume, and active addresses—is also a worrying factor, indicating a weakening foundation for market recovery.
The situation for XRP spot ETFs is also not easy. Despite turning to weekly net inflows, signs of slowing investment demand are intensifying, and the news that $1,000 invested at the launch of the first U.S. XRP spot ETF plummeted by 56% leaves regret. Some analysts even suggest that the rise of stablecoins could be the biggest threat, potentially recreating a 95% crash for XRP.
However, there are also hopeful perspectives. Technical analysis suggests that if XRP maintains the bottom of its descending channel at $0.9223, it could launch a rebound signal towards $3.18. Furthermore, while pausing at the $1.15 resistance level, it's important to remember that regulatory clarity and expanded real-world use could be variables for a breakthrough. The news of attempted scams impersonating Ripple officials is regrettable, but it also serves as proof that public interest in XRP remains high.
A clear regulatory environment is essential for the healthy growth of the cryptocurrency market. In the U.S., crypto-friendly Senator Cynthia Lummis is strongly urging the passage of the CLARITY Act, stating that 'decentralized projects should not be regulated like banks.' This bill is an attempt to establish a rational regulatory framework by distinguishing genuinely decentralized projects from traditional financial systems, because it is an important step towards finding a balance that protects investors without hindering innovation.
The GENIUS Act, a stablecoin regulation bill, has marked one year since its enactment, but the development of detailed regulations is still ongoing. However, with full implementation targeted for July 2028, clear guidelines that stablecoin issuers must adhere to will be presented within the next few years. Furthermore, news that a U.S. Representative is pushing for cryptocurrency holdings to be recognized as assets for mortgage loan evaluations is a positive sign, showing the potential for cryptocurrencies to be integrated more deeply into daily life.
Shall we look at the situation in Korea? It's highly regrettable that the Digital Asset Basic Act, which will define the framework for the domestic digital asset industry, has not passed the National Assembly for over a year. Due to disagreements surrounding key issues such as the issuance structure of Won-based stablecoins and restrictions on major shareholders' equity, discussions in the second half of the year are also expected to be difficult. However, the Bank of Korea plans to start the second phase of Project Han River, a CBDC-based pilot program for real-world deposit token transactions, as early as September, and also plans to promote a government bond tokenization pilot project next year. This is a significant move towards digital financial innovation and is expected to have a positive impact on the development of the domestic blockchain ecosystem.
The cryptocurrency market cannot ignore the influence of macroeconomic conditions and other asset markets. Recently, as 'AI investment skepticism' has spread, semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron have all been impacted. While the artificial intelligence (AI) craze might push up risk assets until the end of this year, there are also predictions of a deep correction in 2027. This could indirectly affect the cryptocurrency market, so it needs to be watched carefully.
A strong dollar and high real interest rates are pushing down gold prices, triggering selling by institutional investors. The correction in gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, can affect overall risk appetite. However, Robert Kiyosaki, author of 'Rich Dad Poor Dad,' stated that he buys more gold and silver when others are selling, emphasizing contrarian investing to find opportunities amidst market panic.
Meanwhile, China's Alibaba's move to release AI chip software for free, challenging Nvidia's CUDA, indicates that AI technology competition will intensify. AI technology development has many areas where it can create synergy with blockchain in the long term, so it is important to continuously monitor related trends.
Recently, Upbit's trading volume has shrunk to one-tenth of its annual peak, showing an overall stagnant market atmosphere. However, just as Dunamu is developing its own Web3 infrastructure 'Giwa', preparations for the future continue even when the market is difficult. This is an important process for solidifying the foundation of the blockchain industry from a long-term perspective.
The memecoin market is still on an unpredictable rollercoaster. 63% of investors in the top 50 memecoins traded on Robinhood recorded losses, and the case of memecoin BRIAN, whose market cap surged 37 times and then plummeted 90% after a single photo of the Coinbase CEO, once again highlights the extreme volatility and risks of memecoin investing. While there was news of a surge in Shiba Inu (SHIB)'s daily trading volume, there was also news of a sharp drop in exchange outflows, requiring a cautious approach.
News that the bankrupt FTX exchange will proceed with its fifth repayment, totaling approximately $900 million, on July 31, returning up to 120% to some creditors, will positively impact the restoration of trust in the cryptocurrency market. Furthermore, strict measures against unfair virtual asset trading, the confiscation of cryptocurrency from a ransomware negotiator, and the sentencing of prison terms for a £5 million cryptocurrency theft case in the UK demonstrate ongoing efforts to enhance market transparency and security.
Today, we've covered a lot of news together. The market is always alive, embracing various opportunities and risks simultaneously. The important thing is to remain steadfast, analyze coolly based on numbers and facts, and stick to your own investment principles. I will continue to do my best to help you make wise investments. See you in the next column!
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