Hello, this is Derivative Fox. As of July 18, 2026, while macroeconomic indicators and major cryptocurrency markets show somewhat unstable trends, some altcoins in the Binance USDT-M futures market are recording significant gains, attracting investors' attention. However, it is necessary to cautiously approach whether such surges in individual assets signify a market-wide trend reversal.
Macroeconomic and Cryptocurrency Market Trends
Currently, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.57% and the 2-year Treasury yield is 4.16%, maintaining high levels, while the Dollar Index shows strength at 120.5046. These factors could dampen investment sentiment for risk assets. US stocks also closed lower, with the S&P 500 down -0.99% and NASDAQ 100 down -1.50%, and the VIX fear index is at 21.65, reflecting market uncertainty.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2273.1B, with 24-hour trading volume at $65.7B. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a slight increase of +0.16% over 24 hours to $63893.0, but Ethereum (ETH) dropped -1.19% to $1840.9, showing mixed directions for major cryptocurrencies. BTC dominance remains high at 56.38%, and the Fear & Greed Index is 27 (Fear), a slight improvement from 25 (Extreme Fear) the previous day, but still in the fear stage. Funding rates for BTC and ETH are low at 0.000031% (+0.00%) and 0.000026% (+0.00%) respectively, which can be interpreted as limited aggressive long position building in major assets.
In-depth Analysis of Top Gainers in Binance USDT-M Futures Market
AKEUSDT: Catching Breath After Explosive Surge
- AKEUSDT recorded the highest gain with a 24-hour change of +41.01%. Current Open Interest (OI) is $36.1B, and 24-hour trading volume is $1.0B. The funding rate is relatively high at 0.000500 (+0.05%).
- Looking at the last 7 days of daily data, it showed an explosive upward trend on July 15 (+257.06%), July 16 (+50.97%), and July 17 (+40.76%). However, today's (July 18) daily candle is currently only up +0.21%, and trading volume has sharply decreased to $159K. This suggests a short-term consolidation or exhaustion of buying power after the previous day's surge.
- This pattern likely involved significant short position liquidations along with new long position inflows. However, the high funding rate and today's sharp decrease in trading volume could increase the possibility of a short-term pullback.
- In conclusion, the probability of AKEUSDT's trend continuation is assessed at 60%, and the probability of a short-term pullback at 40%. The risk of new entry at this point is rated as high. The key variable to watch is whether additional buying power can be injected after the current low trading volume.
ESPORTSUSDT: Steady Trend with Low Funding Rate Noteworthy
- ESPORTSUSDT recorded the second-highest gain with a 24-hour change of +37.97%. Open Interest (OI) is $440.5M, and 24-hour trading volume is $242.5M. The funding rate is 0.000050 (+0.01%), which is relatively low despite the high gains.
- Daily chart analysis shows significant increases on July 16 (+49.57%) and July 17 (+37.09%), and today (July 18) it is in a calm state, up +1.13% with a trading volume of $149K.
- The low funding rate suggests that there is no excessive concentration of long positions or extreme overheating signals yet. This means that the price increase might have been driven by relatively healthy buying interest in addition to a short squeeze. However, similar to AKEUSDT, today's sharp drop in trading volume could indicate a short-term weakening of momentum.
- The probability of ESPORTSUSDT's trend continuation is estimated at 65%, and the probability of a short-term pullback at 35%. The risk of new entry at this point can be considered medium. The key variable is whether additional price driving force can emerge despite the low funding rate.
1000XECUSDT: Rebound with Short Squeeze Potential
- 1000XECUSDT increased by +31.01% over 24 hours, with Open Interest (OI) at $911.4M and 24-hour trading volume at $197.4M. A particularly noteworthy point is that the funding rate is negative at -0.000305 (-0.03%).
- The daily chart showed significant increases on July 13 (+30.53%) and July 17 (+30.89%). Today (July 18) it is up +0.12% with a very low trading volume of $59K.
- A negative funding rate means that short position holders are paying costs to long position holders, strongly suggesting that the main driver of the current price increase is a short squeeze. This is a phenomenon where short positions are pressured and forcibly liquidated, causing prices to rise. While such a short squeeze can cause a sharp short-term increase, there is a risk of a rapid pullback if subsequent buying interest is lacking once short position liquidations subside.
- The probability of 1000XECUSDT's trend continuation is 50%, and the probability of a short-term pullback is 50%, indicating a balance. The risk of new entry at this point is rated as high. The key variables are how long the short position liquidation pressure can continue and whether the funding rate can turn positive.
STARUSDT: Overheating Signal and High Pullback Risk
- STARUSDT recorded a 24-hour change of +28.39%. Open Interest (OI) is $17.7M, and 24-hour trading volume is $22.0M, which is relatively small compared to other top assets. The funding rate is very high at 0.000700 (+0.07%).
- According to daily data, it surged on July 17 (+28.52%), and today (July 18) it shows extremely minimal movement, up +0.03% with a trading volume of $12K.
- Despite low Open Interest and trading volume, an extremely high funding rate strongly suggests that a small number of aggressive long positions are concentrated, indicating an overheated state. Such overheating can cause short-term price corrections and lead to significant drops even with minor shocks.
- The probability of STARUSDT's trend continuation is 30%, and the probability of a short-term pullback is 70%, indicating a very high risk of pullback. The risk of new entry at this point is very high. The key variable to watch is the possibility of a sharp drop due to excessive long position liquidations.
AVAAIUSDT: Decreased Trading Volume After Surge, Searching for Direction
- AVAAIUSDT increased by +24.11% over 24 hours, with Open Interest (OI) at $361.1M and 24-hour trading volume at $17.3M. The funding rate is relatively high at 0.000379 (+0.04%).
- The daily chart showed a strong increase on July 17 (+23.65%), but today (July 18) it recorded a very low level, up +0.41% with a trading volume of $7K.
- A high funding rate indicates the dominance of long positions, but today's sharp decrease in trading volume may mean that buying power has temporarily weakened or that it has entered a phase of searching for the next direction. This can be interpreted as investors taking a wait-and-see approach after the previous day's surge.
- The probability of AVAAIUSDT's trend continuation is assessed at 55%, and the probability of a short-term pullback at 45%. The risk of new entry at this point is rated as high. The key variable is how the market will move after the sharp drop in trading volume.
Other Rising Assets Trends
Other top gainers, TAGUSDT (+16.40%), BULLAUSDT (+16.14%), BANKUSDT (+15.18%), USUSDT (+12.93%), and IDOLUSDT (+12.12%), show similar patterns. Most of them exhibited minimal movement with very low trading volumes on today's (July 18) daily data after surging the previous day. Funding rates generally remain positive, suggesting that the sentiment of long position dominance persists, but the decrease in trading volume can be interpreted as a signal to be wary of short-term momentum slowdown.
Overall Assessment
Today's surge in altcoins in the Binance USDT-M futures market appears to have been caused by specific supply and demand factors for individual assets amidst an overall weak market sentiment. Particularly, high or negative funding rates suggest the possibility of overheated long positions or strong short squeezes, which can amplify short-term volatility. While the 24-hour gains of major altcoins are high, given that the actual trading volume for today (July 18) is mostly insignificant, it is necessary to be cautious about the possibility that insufficient follow-up buying power has entered after yesterday's surge, leading to a short-term correction or sideways movement. Amidst macroeconomic uncertainties and mixed trends in major cryptocurrencies, such altcoin surges are more likely to be temporary phenomena driven by individual catalysts or supply and demand, rather than leading to a sustained bull market.
Key Summary
Despite widespread fear in the market, some altcoins surged, largely due to individual supply and demand factors or short squeezes. High funding rates and today's sharp drop in trading volume, in particular, should be seen as signals to be wary of short-term pullback possibilities. In other words, it seems wiser to approach this as a period of increased volatility rather than a trend reversal.
Checkpoints by Asset
- AKEUSDT: Whether additional buying power will enter after the current low trading volume.
- ESPORTSUSDT: Whether the low funding rate will act as an additional upward driver.
- 1000XECUSDT: Whether additional short positions will be liquidated and whether the funding rate will turn positive.
- STARUSDT: Possibility of a sharp drop due to excessive long position liquidations.
- AVAAIUSDT: Resetting direction after a sharp drop in trading volume.
