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This is Jinhyuk Seo, a macro strategist from Wall Street. On April 17, 2026, the market still reflects anxiety with an 'Extreme Fear' index of 21, but Bitcoin has reclaimed the $75,000 mark and continues its solid upward trend. This suggests that it's time to sharply analyze the correlation between macroeconomic indicators and the crypto market, beyond just a simple rebound.
Where is the market looking now? The data is clear. As the leading rise in the stock market and the recovery of risk appetite gradually spread to the cryptocurrency market, the accumulation of Bitcoin by whales and the inflow of funds into Ethereum spot ETFs are interpreted as strong signals of structural improvement in the market. Even amidst complex economic flows, we can predict the next direction through numbers.
| Indicator | Current Value | 24h Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $75149.0 | +0.45% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2348.7 | -0.47% |
| Ripple (XRP) | $1.45 | +4.39% |
| Solana (SOL) | $89.03 | +4.82% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $0.099214 | +4.58% |
| Fear & Greed Index | 21 (Extreme Fear) | Prev. 23 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $701.66 | +0.25% |
| NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) | $640.47 | +0.48% |
| VIX Fear Index | 28.29 | |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.29% | |
| Bitcoin Funding Rate | 0.0033% | +0.00% |
| Ethereum Funding Rate | 0.0009% | +0.00% |
Current macroeconomic indicators are sending complex signals. The US 10-year Treasury yield remains high at 4.29%, and the effective federal funds rate is 3.64%, indicating ongoing uncertainty about interest rate cuts. New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that inflation would "significantly exceed" 3% in the coming months, dampening market expectations for rate cuts.
However, US equities showed a solid trend, with the S&P 500 closing up +0.25% and the NASDAQ 100 up +0.48%. This indicates that risk appetite has not been completely dampened. In particular, news of progress in ceasefire discussions between Iran and the US is raising hopes that upward pressure on international oil prices could be eased, and inflation concerns partially resolved.
However, geopolitical risks persist, with the US Department of Defense expanding the scope of its naval blockade against Iran and Iran warning that closing the Strait of Hormuz could be considered a breach of the ceasefire agreement. Such uncertainties, as shown by the VIX Fear Index at 28.29, contribute to increased market volatility.
Bitcoin re-broke the $75,000 resistance level, recording a +0.45% increase over the past 24 hours to reach $75,149. Notably, despite extreme fear sentiment, Bitcoin whales have accumulated approximately 270,000 BTC over the last 30 days, and the BTC holdings on major exchanges have decreased to their lowest level since December 2017.
This indicates the presence of strong buying power capable of absorbing large-scale selling pressure, and that entities valuing Bitcoin's long-term worth are participating in the market. The phenomenon of Bitcoin's price rising despite a negative funding rate (-0.005%) has been observed similarly in past 'bottom phases,' increasing the likelihood that short position liquidations will act as further upward momentum. This could be the trigger for an 'unprecedented short squeeze.'
However, analysis suggests that the $76,000 region represents the average purchase price for short-term holders, and profit-taking selling pressure is increasing in this range. For a sustained rally, new demand is needed to absorb selling volume in the mid-$70,000s, and breaking above $78,100 will be crucial.
Ethereum showed a strong trend, rising +6.21% over the past 7 days. Notably, the continuous net inflow into US Ethereum spot ETFs for 5 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $67.9 million (99.8 billion KRW), strengthens Ethereum's structural bullish signal. Institutional investors are increasing their bets on Ethereum, with some forecasts suggesting a rise to $7,500.
XRP led the altcoin rebound, rising +4.39% over the last 24 hours. Whale accumulation and a simultaneous surge in ETF funds are considered precursors to XRP's bull run, with the number of individual investor wallets also reaching an all-time high. News of the tokenized government bond experiment with Kyobo Life Insurance and cooperation signals from Solana developers are increasing the potential for XRP's real-world use expansion, acting as positive momentum.
Solana continues its positive trend, rising +4.82%. Expectations for a technical upgrade called Alpenglow approval and the launch of the high-speed data transfer service 'Double Zero Edge' are expected to drive the growth of the Solana ecosystem. Dogecoin also rose +4.58%, attempting to break $0.1, buoyed by expectations of Elon Musk's X (formerly Twitter) introducing financial features.
The Fear & Greed Index stands at 21, remaining in the 'Extreme Fear' stage. While this reflects the general anxiety of market participants, the paradoxical past formula that the biggest profits were reaped by investors who bought when fear was at its peak is once again gaining attention.
Nomura's report, stating that 80% of institutional investors have expressed an intention to invest in cryptocurrencies and view the current phase as a 'preparatory stage' before full entry, suggests that long-term capital inflows are awaiting even amidst this fear. Particularly, interest in stablecoin utilization and asset tokenization will be key drivers in elevating the value of the blockchain market in the future.
Despite 'extreme fear' amidst geopolitical risks and interest rate uncertainties, Bitcoin's whale accumulation, Ethereum spot ETF inflows, and individual altcoin catalysts are strengthening the market's structural upward foundation, interpreted as strong signals for a short-term short squeeze and a long-term bull market transition.
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꿈나라85
·이게 뭔소리야, 코인 너무 어렵네
꿈나라
·와, 고래 매집이랑 ETF 자금 유입 디테일하네.
문다온
·진짜 족집게네, 이건 뭐 레전드 참교육 각이다
비잎
·오, 이게 다 뭔 소리야 😮