Kalshi and Polymarket See Surge in Bets on Democratic Control of Both US Houses

▲ Prediction market, US election/ChatGPT generated image

With one day left until the US midterm elections, prediction markets have assigned a 74-78% probability to the Democratic Party taking control of both the House and Senate.

According to Bitcoin.com, a cryptocurrency-focused media outlet, on November 2 (local time), prediction markets, which have proven to be quite reliable in political outcomes, indicate a clear advantage for the Democratic Party on the eve of the election. This election involves all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. Polymarket's '2026 Midterm Election Balance of Power' market has seen over $58 million in trading volume and gives the Democratic Party a 78% chance of taking both the House and Senate. The Republican Party has an 18% chance of retaining a Senate majority. Kalshi places the probability of a Democratic sweep at 74% and the Republican Party retaining the Senate at 22%. Kalshi's contract volume exceeds $100 million. Both platforms favor Democratic candidates in key Senate races. In Texas, James Talarico is favored 74-76% against Republican Ken Paxton; in Maine, Troy Jackson is favored 73% against Republican Susan Collins on both platforms; and in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed is favored 78% on both platforms.

This time, traditional polls are also siding with the prediction markets. CNN data analyst Harry Enten stated on Sunday, "There has been what amounts to a polling earthquake in just a few hours. To continue the weather analogy, it tends to point to a blue wave."

Prediction markets made a strong entry into the political arena by accurately predicting the victory of US President Donald Trump in 2024 when some traditional polls favored Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. This midterm election is their biggest test since then. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour called this the 'first prediction market election,' stating that over $1.4 billion has been traded in midterm election-related bets. However, since 2024, the accuracy of these platforms has been erratic at best. They favored Senator Flávio Bolsonaro before Brazil's runoff election but failed to catch President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's comeback victory. The impact of prediction markets on voting behavior has also come under scrutiny for the first time. Organizations like the Center for Democracy and Technology emphasize that they can distort candidate decisions, influence voter behavior, and undermine trust in the electoral process and results.

[Article Key Summary]

-Polymarket sees a 78% chance of Democrats taking both the House and Senate, while Kalshi sees 74%. Republicans' chances of holding the Senate are 18% and 22% respectively.

-Traditional polls are also pointing in the same direction, with Enten mentioning a "polling earthquake" and a blue wave.

-Prediction markets accurately predicted Trump's victory in 2024 but missed Lula's comeback win in the Brazilian runoff, bringing their accuracy and influence under scrutiny.

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