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"Despite achieving record high sales and earning a net profit of 41 trillion won, why did the stock price fall by nearly 3% in after-hours trading?" The questions and tension among domestic retail investors ("Seohak Gaemi") closely watching the U.S. stock market pre-market on Tuesday afternoon are once again heightened. This is because even Apple (AAPL), the last runner in the Big Tech earnings super-week, recorded a decline in after-hours trading immediately after its earnings announcement, failing to escape Wall Street's harsh judgment.
On the 2nd (local time), immediately after the close of regular trading, Apple announced that it had achieved sales of $114.5 billion (up 12% year-on-year), net income of $30.7 billion ($2.10 EPS), and a gross profit margin of 47.9% for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026. This is the highest quarterly performance ever. However, the market's reaction was cold. Apple's stock price, which had closed the regular session at $338.32, temporarily fell to $323.33 (-4.43%) during the earnings call, and closed at $328.81, down 2.81%, even at the end of after-hours trading.
What held Apple back was its 'cautious guidance for the year-end holiday quarter (October-December)' and 'supply chain constraints'. In its first earnings announcement chaired by new CEO John Turnus, Apple confirmed strong initial demand for its first foldable device, the 'iPhone Duo', but stated, "Current demand significantly exceeds supply, making it difficult to determine when supply chain bottlenecks will be resolved." Furthermore, as the December quarter revenue growth guidance failed to meet Wall Street's highest expectations, the high valuation burden of a 36x forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) turned into profit-taking sales.
The repercussions directly hit Asian stock markets on the 3rd. As global doubts about the profitability of AI infrastructure investment spread, Samsung Electronics plunged 4.59% and SK Hynix fell 5.57% in the domestic stock market, with the KOSPI index retreating 2.59% to the 5,706 level. Meanwhile, Anthropic, a leader in generative AI, announced a 12-fold surge in quarterly revenue along with mid-to-long-term investment plans amounting to $895 billion, but the market remains cautious about the 'astronomical capital expenditure competition that will start again'.
However, the real decisive moment begins tonight. This is because the main voting for the '2026 U.S. Midterm Elections' has begun across the United States, electing all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate. As U.S. voters head to the polls, driven by concerns over high oil prices and inflation, U.S. stock index night futures are maintaining an extremely cautious trading atmosphere in a slightly weak range. Depending on the election results, the speed of budget execution for the CHIPS Act, additional export restrictions on advanced semiconductors to China, and the legislative fate of bills clarifying corporate tax rates and virtual asset regulations will be determined.
An alarm bell has been rung for the portfolio management of domestic "Seohak Gaemi" (retail investors investing in foreign stocks). According to official deposit statistics, domestic investors net bought 6.6 trillion won worth of U.S. stocks in October, with 73.9% of that, or 4.7 trillion won (approximately $3.55 billion), being concentrated in 'Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X (SOXL)', which tracks the semiconductor index with 3x leverage. However, following a 30% plunge in mid-October and today's simultaneous sharp decline in domestic semiconductor stocks, the risk of account losses due to 'negative compounding', an inherent risk of leveraged products, is being maximized.
Experts unanimously advise against premature "averaging down" during the midterm election vote counting broadcasts tonight and tomorrow morning, and in the U.S. stock market pre-market. As Apple's earnings have shown, the AI market has now entered a phase where it is being scrutinized not by 'rosy expectations' but by 'strict guidance and actual delivery speed'.
Until the political fog of the midterm elections clears, reducing 3x leveraged positions to within 10% and maintaining 'defensive cash management' by holding over 30% in ultra-short-term Treasury ETFs (SGOV), proven safe by the recent fall in 10-year Treasury yields (4.89%), or dollar deposits, is the only survival formula to overcome the upcoming volatility of vote counting.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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