The shock of the $6.3 billion hack is not over yet! 'Three Major Risk Signals' to determine Bitcoin's direction

▲ Cryptocurrency Hacking ©

Following the $6.3 billion Binance hacking incident, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to the $76,000 level. Now, outflows from spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), an increase in exchange withdrawals, and the movement of stolen funds by hackers have emerged as key variables that will determine future price movements.

According to crypto media outlet Cryptopotato on November 2 (local time), market analyst CryptosRus presented three indicators to watch after the Binance hack: Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF fund flows, exchange fund withdrawals, and the movement of hackers' stolen assets. The analysis suggests that how these factors affect overall market liquidity and investor sentiment, rather than the scale of the hacking damage itself, could determine the future recovery.

Institutional investor demand is already showing signs of weakening. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $202.59 million, and Ethereum (ETH) spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $431.53 million. In particular, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced an outflow of over $643 million on Friday alone, marking the largest daily outflow since June 25. Ethereum spot ETFs also recorded net outflows for five consecutive trading days, with Friday's outflow amounting to approximately $156 million. CryptosRus diagnosed that while ETF buying had previously acted as structural support to absorb the hacking shock, the weakening of fund inflows has made the resilience of the spot market even more critical.

Binance's fund withdrawal trends are also a key observation target. Binance resumed withdrawal services within 72 hours of the hack, and users withdrew approximately $4.65 billion while depositing just over $1 billion, resulting in a net outflow of about $3.64 billion. However, this is slightly more than 2% of Binance's total assets, and no disorderly large-scale withdrawal incidents have occurred so far. CryptosRus stated that moving funds after a hack is reasonable risk management, but warned that if withdrawals accelerate, payment processing deteriorates, stablecoin liquidity shrinks, or anxiety spreads to other exchanges, it could escalate into a systemic problem.

The process of hackers moving stolen funds could also act as new selling pressure. On-chain investigations show that the attackers moved approximately $242 million through THORChain, Relay, Chainflip, Symbiosis, and others. Additionally, 486,970 Solana (SOL) worth approximately $46.4 million from suspicious wallets linked to the hack were exchanged for Bitcoin via Relay. CryptosRus analyzed that these transactions could cause localized price pressure in some markets, and cross-chain movements could make tracking and recovery of stolen funds even more difficult.

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