Bitcoin (BTC)'s glory days are over?...Mike McGlone: "It's been lagging behind Treasury bonds for two years"

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Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence warned that Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical inflection point against US Treasury bonds.

According to crypto news outlet U.Today on November 1 (local time), Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, warned that Bitcoin is at a key inflection point against US Treasury bonds, which could lead to a broader cryptocurrency market downturn. He wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that "Bitcoin may be retreating from a key inflection point against US Treasury bonds, with broad implications for all assets." McGlone viewed Bitcoin remaining below $80,000 as a sign of a crypto collapse. He stated that $80,000 is a key price level, and if bearish sentiment continues below this, the cryptocurrency market could face greater difficulties.

McGlone explained his bearish outlook by comparing BlackRock (BLK)'s Bitcoin ETF IBIT with the 20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF TLT. The ratio of IBIT to TLT, normalized to 100 at the end of 2024, was 81 on October 30. This means the Bitcoin ETF lagged the Treasury bond ETF by about 19% in terms of normalized relative performance during this period. This ratio has not managed to stay above the baseline of 100 since Q4 2025. McGlone pointed out that despite IBIT's volatility being about four times that of TLT, its underperformance in relative terms is concerning. Nevertheless, investors holding long-term Treasury bonds have seen better relative performance since the end of 2024.

McGlone also questioned whether Bitcoin's glory days might be over. 2024 was a landmark year for the cryptocurrency industry, with the launch of US Bitcoin spot ETFs and former US President Donald Trump shifting from a crypto critic to an active supporter. However, Bitcoin has since failed to outperform traditional Treasury bonds. He stated that US Treasury bonds are one of the most widely leveraged markets in the world, and the fact that Treasury bonds have outperformed Bitcoin for about two years could be a harbinger of what might happen if crypto remains below $80,000. McGlone indicated that Bitcoin's sluggish performance might suggest its best days are in the past.

[Article Summary]

-McGlone warned that Bitcoin is retreating from a key inflection point against US Treasury bonds, and if bearish sentiment continues below $80,000, the cryptocurrency market could face greater difficulties.

-The IBIT/TLT ratio fell from 100 at the end of 2024 to 81 on October 30, lagging by about 19%, and has not exceeded 100 since Q4 2025.

-IBIT's volatility is about four times that of TLT, and McGlone saw the Treasury bonds outperforming Bitcoin for about two years as a potential harbinger.

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