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▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©CoinReaders
As Bitcoin (BTC) sharply dropped just as it was about to break through $85,000, attention is now focused on the possibility of a rebound in November. Major variables such as technical resistance levels, outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, soaring international oil prices, and the US midterm elections are hindering its rise. Experts predict that while a recovery to $85,000 in November is possible, maintaining that price until the end of the month will be challenging.
According to investment specialized media 247 Wall St. on October 25 (local time), Bitcoin rose to a high of $84,856 in the past week, attempting to break $85,000, but fell to $80,530 as of the morning of October 24 due to selling pressure. It has dropped 3.5% in October, with the highest price in the last 30 days recorded at $87,249. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below its 50-day moving average (MA) of $81,776 and its 20-day moving average of $82,826. To regain upward momentum, it must sequentially break through a total of four resistance levels: the two moving averages, the October opening price of $83,556, and the recent high of $84,856.
Institutional investor fund flows are also a key variable. On October 22 alone, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $635.6 million, and an additional $110.3 million flowed out of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) on the 23rd. Conversely, fund flows are fluctuating rapidly, with net inflows of $526.6 million and $528.4 million on the 19th and 21st, respectively. As of the 22nd, the cumulative net inflow was tallied at $57.3 billion. The media analyzed that sustained net inflows into spot ETFs must support Bitcoin's stable recovery to $85,000 in November.
Rising international oil prices and weakness in tech stocks are also burdens. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose to $110 per barrel on October 19, then recorded $108 on the 20th, a 13.1% increase in a week. As oil prices rose again on the 23rd due to concerns about escalating conflict in the Middle East, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, fell 5% over the month. However, the fact that the US 10-year Treasury yield decreased from 5.31% on October 5 to 4.96% on the 22nd is considered a positive factor for risk assets.
The US midterm elections scheduled for November 3 are also considered a variable that will influence market volatility. Prediction market Polymarket reflects a 91.5% chance of Democrats winning the House and a 67.5% chance of winning the Senate. If the election results align with market expectations, uncertainty may ease, but unexpected outcomes could lead to increased volatility. The Volatility Index (VIX), which indicates actual market volatility, rose 15.6% in a week to 19 on October 22, demonstrating investor caution.
247 Wall St. predicts that while Bitcoin may surpass $85,000 in November, it is unlikely to maintain that level until November 30. The analysis suggests that a rise of approximately 5.6% from the current price would require breaking through moving averages, sustained net inflows into spot ETFs after the midterm elections, and breaking through the $83,556 and $84,856 resistance levels. Additionally, international oil prices would need to fall below $100 per barrel to further boost the upward trend. Conversely, if Bitcoin closes below its recent 30-day low of $79,676 and ETF outflows continue, the recovery to $85,000 could be delayed until after December.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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