Sales Growth Outlook Released...Morgan Stanley Lowers Apple (AAPL) Price Target

▲ Apple (AAPL), Bear Market/AI Generated Image

An outlook has emerged that Apple (AAPL) will continue its sales growth, leveraging the launch of new products in the fall. However, an analysis suggests that rising memory semiconductor prices and downward pressure on iPhone average selling prices could limit profitability improvements.

Stocktwits reported on October 1st, citing Morgan Stanley's analysis report, that the fall hardware new product launch cycle would drive Apple's external growth. Morgan Stanley slightly raised Apple's revenue estimates, based on increased iPhone production and improved pricing policies in the Mac product line and services segment. However, rising memory semiconductor costs and a decline in iPhone average selling prices largely offset the margin improvements from new products, effectively keeping net profit forecasts at existing levels.

Reflecting these cost burden factors, Morgan Stanley slightly lowered Apple's price target from the previous $360 to $355. However, considering its long-term hardware dominance and robust service ecosystem, the "Overweight" investment rating was maintained.

Apple officially entered the market in mid-September by launching new smartphones, including the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. Prior to this, it proactively reorganized its computer lineup, strengthening its hardware momentum with the Mac mini, featuring proprietary M6 and M5 Pro chips, and the high-performance Mac Studio, equipped with M5 Max and M5 Ultra chips.

Wall Street is also monitoring the competition for platform leadership due to the spread of autonomous artificial intelligence (agentic AI) as a new variable. Bank of America (BofA) warned that while Meta (Meta Platforms, META)'s next-generation AI model, Muse, is gaining attention, if autonomous AI dominates user product discovery and payment initiation paths, Apple's ecosystem control could weaken, even with robust iPhone sales. Conversely, Morgan Stanley pointed out that while autonomous AI is a potential risk factor, it could also be an opportunity for Apple to lead new interface innovations.

Apple's stock price has risen by approximately 23% since 2026, recording the best returns among the Magnificent Seven US large-cap tech stocks. However, individual investors' sentiment index on the Stocktwits platform remains in a bearish zone, indicating caution regarding cost burdens and AI competition.

Having laid the groundwork for external growth through the fall new product cycle, Apple faces the challenges of defending margins and maintaining AI hegemony. Market attention is focused on whether it can offset soaring memory component costs, protect its leadership in the next-generation AI ecosystem, and sustain upward momentum towards the $355 price target.

[Key Article Summary]

-Morgan Stanley raised Apple (AAPL)'s revenue outlook due to the effect of new iPhone and Mac launches but lowered its price target from $360 to $355 due to memory cost burdens.

-Increased iPhone production and service revenue were offset by surging memory costs and a decline in iPhone average selling prices, leaving profit forecasts unchanged.

-Apple, which has risen 23% this year, maintains strong hardware but faces a new test in the form of autonomous AI platform competition.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*