Bitcoin (BTC), 3 consecutive quarters of rally... Will the legendary October bull market erupt again?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered October, often considered the strongest bullish season of the year, building on its relentless upward momentum throughout the third quarter. With a strong performance of closing three consecutive months with gains, market attention is focused on whether Bitcoin will stage a typical bull market "Uptober" rally.

CryptoPotato reported on October 1st that Bitcoin rebounded from its July low of below $58,000, turning into a 7.36% gain, and then charted a strong recovery trajectory. The first half of August was sluggish, but in the latter half, it surged past $75,000, soaring 25% monthly to record its largest monthly gain since October 2023. The momentum continued into September, starting from the $77,000 level and climbing to $82,000. However, in mid-month, the rejection of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill and the shock of the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s interest rate hike combined, causing a sharp drop to $75,000. But contrary to market concerns, it swiftly reclaimed the $80,000 level, and on September 22nd and 23rd, it surged to $87,000, ultimately closing September with a 6.33% gain. This marked Bitcoin's third consecutive monthly gain and its fifth monthly gain for the year.

According to the statistics platform CoinGlass, October is historically the month with the highest probability of Bitcoin price increases. The majority of market experts have diagnosed that Bitcoin, having broken above key resistance levels, has re-entered a full-fledged bull market cycle. Although the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant warned of slowing momentum and increased profit-taking the day before, the optimistic view on the upward trend still prevails.

Experts have identified the $80,000 level as a critical turning point that will determine the success or failure of the future market. As long as $80,000 is stably supported, the seasonal bull market structure can remain valid, but if the $80,000 support level breaks, the "Uptober" expectations themselves could be completely nullified. On the upside, breaking through the $87,000 level, which faced resistance last month, and the previous high resistance zone is key to further surges.

Changes in macroeconomic conditions are also considered variables for the October market. Despite softened inflation data, rising bond yields and geopolitical risks lurk, maintaining caution that volatility in traditional financial markets could spill over into the virtual asset market. However, demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs and accumulation by long-term holders are supporting downward rigidity.

After overcoming adverse conditions throughout the third quarter and achieving three consecutive monthly gains, Bitcoin is now on trial for a major bull market in October. Market interest is focused on whether it can firmly maintain the $80,000 support level, surpass $87,000, and continue its rally towards an all-time high.

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin (BTC) recorded three consecutive months of gains, rising 6.33% in September, following gains in July and August.

-With October historically having the highest price increase rate, most analysts predicted the recapture of resistance levels and re-entry into a bull market.

-Experts pointed out that if the $80,000 level breaks, the seasonal bullish structure would be nullified, requiring thorough confirmation of support.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*