Bitcoin (BTC), best Q3 performance since 2017...Will the Q4 jackpot hit again?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) surged by approximately 42% in the third quarter, marking its second strongest Q3 gain since 2017. While this is a dramatic rebound from the slump in the first half of the year, it still remains at a negative return compared to the beginning of the year, leading to mixed feelings of caution regarding a true trend reversal.

According to global financial portal Yahoo Finance on September 30 (local time), Bitcoin surged by approximately 42% in Q3, overcoming a 22% drop in Q1 and a 14% decline in Q2. This figure is nearly five times higher than CoinGlass's historical average Q3 growth rate of 8.63%, making it the second-highest Q3 performance after the 80.41% recorded in 2017. However, due to the significant decline in the first half of the year, despite the strong Q3 rally, it is still down about 5% year-to-date and remains approximately 26% below its price from a year ago.

At the heart of the Q3 rebound is the return of institutional funds, primarily driven by spot ETFs. After experiencing outflows in Q2, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market saw an inflow of $6.4 billion in Q3. On September 21 alone, $999 million poured in, driving market buying sentiment. The total net asset value of all ETFs currently stands at $107.82 billion, accounting for 6.42% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization.

The resumption of large-scale corporate accumulation is also adding to the upward momentum. Strategy Inc. (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, resumed additional purchases during Q3, stimulating buying sentiment. The expectation of regulatory easing by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), along with growing concerns about fiscal health due to soaring U.S. Treasury yields, also positively impacted the market as some hedge demand diversified into alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin.

Experts evaluated that historically, the fourth quarter has shown the strongest seasonal characteristics of the year, with an average growth rate of 77.07%. However, they cautioned that it is too early to be optimistic about a further surge in Q4 based solely on seasonal expectations, given the presence of major macroeconomic variables such as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields exceeding 5.2%, oil price volatility, and the U.S. non-farm payroll report to be released later in the week.

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin surged 42% in Q3, achieving its second-highest Q3 return since 2017.

-$6.4 billion re-entered ETFs, and Strategy (MSTR) resumed purchases, supporting the rebound.

-Despite historical Q4 optimism, macroeconomic headwinds such as the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 5.2% are cited as variables.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*