Bitcoin (BTC), after Q3 rally, faces $80,000 test... Long-term slump if it collapses?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

After a strong rally in the third quarter, Bitcoin (BTC) retreated to the early $80,000s, putting it on a test to defend a key support level that will be a turning point for the year-end market.

Crypto-specialized YouTube channel Coin Bureau analyzed in a video uploaded on September 30 (local time) that Bitcoin rebounded, overcoming the negative news of the rejection of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill and driven by the inflow of Wall Street spot ETF funds. However, further upward momentum slowed due to a combination of macroeconomic headwinds and profit-taking within the market. In the week ending September 25, US Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $2.39 billion, with a record annual inflow of $999 million on September 21, led by BlackRock's IBIT. However, a sharp reversal occurred immediately after hitting $87,000 intraday on that day, and daily ETF inflows plummeted to $31 million on September 28.

Soaring interest rates in the bond market and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) are putting strong downward pressure on risk assets across the board. The US 10-year Treasury yield surged from around 4.75% in early August to around 5.26%, its highest level since 2007. Jonathan Randin, PrimeXBT's Senior Market Analyst, stated, “While an interest rate hike is a single, predetermined decision, bond sell-offs are not predetermined in size, and the market determines the limits. Yields exceeding 5% directly compete with non-interest-paying assets.” The Fed decided on a 25bp interest rate hike at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with 16 out of 18 members forecasting additional hikes within the year, and Brent crude oil exceeding $100 per barrel, fueling inflation concerns. Marcus Tan, founder of 10X Research, warned that when interest rates rise due to fiscal concerns and term premiums, the market environment completely reverses.

Within the virtual asset market, large-scale profit-taking and leverage liquidations continued. According to CryptoQuant, investors realized profits of 25,700 BTC in a single day on September 22, marking the largest single-day profit-taking since 2026. Glassnode data shows that long-term holder buying volume is concentrated in the $84,000 to $85,000 range, indicating that break-even selling pressure emerges with every rebound. Furthermore, between September 21 and 25, Bitcoin futures open interest decreased by 49,000 BTC (approximately $4.1 billion), and on September 23, long positions worth $230 million were liquidated within an hour.

The primary key support level that will determine the price direction is $80,000. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart estimated the average purchase price for ETF investors at $81,700, and the average price for short-term holders is also concentrated in the $80,500 to $81,000 range. If $80,000 breaks, a significant portion of newly entered funds will enter the unrealized loss territory. If $80,000 cannot be defended, $75,000, where the 50-day moving average is located, is considered the next support level. On the upside, sustained trading volume and absorption of supply are needed to break through the previous high of $87,000.

Currently, the unrealized profit rate for long-term holders is approximately 72%, significantly lower than the 350% at the peak in December 2024. This suggests a gradual distribution phase rather than a market-wide sell-off. However, if Bitcoin breaks below $80,000, a prolonged sideways trend could follow, so investors should monitor price volatility based on macroeconomic indicator announcements and changes in the probability of further Fed interest rate hikes.

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin retreated to the early $80,000s after a Q3 surge, while the 10-year Treasury yield soared to 5.26%, pressuring its upward momentum.

-A sell wall around $85,000 was identified due to a combination of 25,700 BTC profit-taking (the largest since 2026) and $4.1 billion in futures liquidations.

-Considering James Seyffart's estimated average ETF purchase price of $81,700, defending the $80,000 support level is expected to determine the Q4 trend.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*