Ripple (XRP) fell below $1.50, but Stellar (XLM) rebounded… What's next for the two coins?

▲ XRP, Stellar (XLM)/AI-generated image ©

XRP (Ripple) has fallen below $1.50, while Stellar (XLM) has rebounded to $0.227, showing conflicting trends. However, with the sharp rise in US Treasury yields and mixed signals from the derivatives market suppressing risk asset investment sentiment, both coins face clear resistance to further upward movement.

According to investment media FXStreet on October 1 (local time), XRP traded at $1.489 on Thursday, down 1.72% this week. In contrast, XLM rebounded to $0.227 after a slight rise the previous day. The market's burden is the US Treasury yield. The US 5-year Treasury yield exceeded 5%, and the 10-year yield broke through 5.2%, both reaching their highest levels in 19 years. The analysis suggests that as rising bond yields increase the investment attractiveness of traditional bonds, the upward momentum of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies is being limited.

Derivative indicators also show conflicting directions. According to Coinglass, the Long-to-Short Ratio for XRP and XLM is 0.85 and 0.68, respectively, close to their lowest levels in about a month. A reading below 1 means that positions betting on a decline are relatively dominant. On the other hand, XRP's Funding Rate turned positive on September 24 and recorded 0.0040% on Thursday, while XLM also maintained a positive trend since September 14, showing 0.0100%. This implies that long positions are paying fees to short positions, indicating that some bullish expectations still remain simultaneously.

Although XRP is undergoing a short-term correction, its medium-term technical structure remains strong. The price is above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), which are clustered around $1.376-$1.314. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55, staying above the neutral line, indicating that buying pressure is maintained, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slightly dropped below the 0 line, showing a slowdown in recent upward momentum. The first resistance level on the upside is $1.671, and if it surpasses this, $1.900 will be the next resistance. On the downside, $1.376 and $1.371 are the primary support levels, followed by $1.314-$1.300 as the key defense zone. If even this breaks, the downside risk could open up to $1.000.

XLM's technical trend is relatively robust. The price is above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, which are gathered around $0.188-$0.195. The RSI is approximately 63, and the MACD is also positive, indicating that buying power remains dominant. On the downside, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement at $0.219 is the first support level, followed by $0.200 and the $0.195-$0.191 range as key demand zones. In a deeper correction, $0.177 and $0.142 are considered support levels.

If the rebound continues, the first hurdle for XLM to overcome is the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement at $0.237. After that, strong resistance is overlapping near the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement at $0.261 and the downtrend line at $0.260. Ultimately, whether XRP can maintain support in the $1.300s and recover $1.671, and whether XLM can surpass $0.237 and break through the $0.260-$0.261 resistance zone, are presented as key technical variables that will determine the next direction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*