Bitcoin Breaks 'September Jinx'... Possibility of Challenging $90,000 in October

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Bitcoin (BTC) broke its September seasonality, often called the 'bearish month,' by rising over 7%. This, coupled with lower-than-expected U.S. inflation and $2.8 billion in spot ETF inflows, suggests a potential challenge to $90,000 in October. However, whether it breaks $86,500, the slowing pace of ETF inflows, and U.S. employment figures are key variables for further gains.

According to investment media outlet TradingNews on September 30 (local time), Bitcoin traded at $83,752, rising 7.04% during September. The U.S. August Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index rose 3.0% year-over-year, falling below market expectations of 3.3%, and its month-over-month increase was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. Consequently, the probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in October dropped from over 70% at one point to 37%. Bitcoin surged to $84,553 after the PCE announcement but gave back some gains to the $83,000 range as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded to around 5.25%.

Institutional funds are also bolstering the bullish outlook. U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of over $2.8 billion from September 18 to 25, with $2.386 billion flowing in during the week ending on the 25th alone. As a result, the cumulative net outflow, which once reached $5.8 billion this year, turned into a net inflow of $800 million to $934 million by the end of September. The total net assets of spot ETFs stand at $107.82 billion, accounting for 6.42% of Bitcoin's market capitalization. However, while net inflows continued for nine consecutive trading days with $31.07 million on September 28 and $66.19 million on September 29, the intensity of inflows, which averaged $477 million per day in the previous week, decreased by approximately 90% to $48.6 million this week.

The technical structure still favors an upward trend. BTC is above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $81,964, 50-day EMA of $77,799, and 200-day EMA of $73,693, with short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving averages aligned in an ascending order. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 60.26, not yet reaching the overbought threshold of 70. Short-term resistance is at $84,553, and if it surpasses this and breaks the 8-month high of $86,500, the upper Bollinger Band at $88,509 is suggested as the next target. Analysis suggests that if the upward trend continues above $86,500, $90,000 could come into view in October.

Conversely, downside risks remain. The key defensive line is at $81,964, where the 20-day EMA is located. If the price falls below this on a daily basis, the 50-day EMA at $77,799 and the early September price level of $77,934 are suggested as the next support zones. Furthermore, if U.S. non-farm payroll data for September comes in stronger than expected, or if the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield once again surpasses 5.29%, interest rate concerns could resurface. The scenario where rising oil prices exacerbate inflationary pressure with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) exceeding $90, and spot ETFs turning into a net outflow of over $500 million weekly, are also major risk factors.

TradingNews noted that Bitcoin maintained its upward trend in September despite the Fed's interest rate hike, the failure of the CLARITY Act, and a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields. On September 21-22, a short squeeze liquidating $648 million worth of short positions accelerated the rally, and leverage pressure subsequently eased. The outlet presented $81,964 as the key baseline for maintaining a bullish outlook, predicting that if this price holds and $86,500 is broken, a move towards $90,000 via $88,509 is possible.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*